Preview: UFC on Fox 22 ‘VanZant vs. Waterson’

Light Heavyweights

Luis Henrique da Silva (12-0) vs. Paul Craig (8-0): Silva has clawed his way back from the brink of defeat to finish each of his last two opponents. Though that does suggest his chin-first style is not sustainable, it also speaks volumes about his toughness, determination to win and killer instinct. A fairly straightforward muay Thai fighter, Silva relies on his powerful kicks and wild punches at range, from whence he will cover up and step into the clinch, where his crushing knees are a crucial asset. Though he only reveals it when he is knocked down, Silva can threaten with some savvy sweeps and submissions from his back. In fact, he looks pretty lightning-quick in transitions on the floor. Like Silva, promotional newcomer Craig is a finisher. Submissions are his specialty, however, often snagged in the midst of crazy scrambles. The Scotsman’s wrestling is not perfect, but then again, Silva has not been a perfect defender of takedowns. Craig’s biggest problem is that he does not seem particularly comfortable on the feet. He throws kicks and single punches but lacks nuance and defense. Silva gets so wild that it would not be a shock for Craig to take him down and find some success on the ground. However, Craig is hittable, and that is a bad trait against the Brazilian. Silva by TKO is the pick.

Featherweights

Cole Miller (21-10) vs. Mizuto Hirota (17-7-2): As a fighter, Hirota has a lot in common with his countryman and bantamweight staple Takeya Mizugaki. Namely, he is super tough, a harder hitter and a better wrestler than you think; and he is a bona fide, grizzled vet. Mizugaki’s underrated defense, however, is nowhere to be seen. If Miller can fight consistently behind his extra-long jab, Hirota will be an open target on the way in. The problem is that Miller is inconsistent by nature. He tends to get frustrated or overcautious, sometimes focusing on fouls to the detriment of his own performance. In other words, he seems to become fixated on what his opponent is doing and fails to plan for himself. There is no denying that Miller looked atrocious for two rounds against Alex Caceres, but a sudden decision to pull the trigger in Round 3 nearly won him the fight. Given Hirota’s toughness, however, Miller would need to outstrike Hirota soundly in two full rounds to win on the feet, or submit him on the ground. Only one man has ever submitted Hirota: the notorious Shinya Aoki, not a universally loved figure but one of the greatest submission artists in the history of this sport. Hirota should be crafty and dogged enough to outwork a tentative Miller. Hirota by unanimous decision is the pick.

Welterweights

Bryan Barberena (12-3) vs. Colby Covington (10-1): I have a lot of respect for Barberena. He has established himself as one of the best hype-killers at welterweight, having stopped the momentum of two top prospects: Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves. Barberena is tough and he knows it, but rather than relying solely on his chin, he applies slow but steady pressure, countering his way forward and into the pocket where his size and strength play a sizeable role. Unfortunately for Barberena, Covington is not likely to hang out in the clinch or spend much time kickboxing. His M.O. is simple: takedowns, takedowns, takedowns. In six UFC fights, Covington has completed a staggering 21 takedowns, along with innumerable mat returns, reversals and sweeps. His pressure on the ground is relentless, and only the most dangerous finishers and elite counter-wrestlers are fit to combat it. Barberena is a lot of things, but he is not dangerous enough to stop Covington’s game plan. The pick is Covington by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

James Moontasri (9-4) vs. Alex Morono (12-3): Sixteen of the 17 media members sampled by MMADecisions.com disagreed with the decision, but Morono showed great heart and will to win in his short-notice UFC debut against Kyle Noke. Morono swung for the fences, took his licks and threatened on the ground when he could. He still struggled with Noke’s size and strength and made himself an easy target by bouncing around stiff-legged within punching range. Moontasri is not a complete fighter. He is arguably less complete than Noke. His game is a series of transitions and explosions, lacking the tactical skeleton which would hold it all together. However, Moontasri is a phenomenal athlete. He is extremely fast and dexterous, powerful and effective in limited ground exchanges. Unless Moontasri gasses badly, the slow-footed Morono will have a hard time outscoring or hurting him. Moontasri by unanimous decision is the pick.

Lightweights

Josh Emmett (10-0) vs. Scott Holtzman (9-1): Emmett impressed in his UFC debut, beating Jon Tuck on short notice. Though I would not call footwork a typical strength of the Team Alpha Male crew, Emmett’s is quite nice. He regularly feints and pot shots to create pauses in which he can pivot and sidestep his way to a sneaky right hand. Emmett’s confidence and swagger accentuated his class. It is worth noting that Emmett lost his cool in the third round and came close to being finished, but in fairness, one of his fingers was pointed in the wrong direction. Holtzman’s rough-and-tumble style could be the solution. Emmett is solid, but he is vulnerable to consistent pressure -- something Tuck could not produce but Holtzman can. Holtzman is still a developing fighter who has only been competing since 2012, but he is a solid athlete with a propensity for clinch fighting and relentless takedowns; and he is a surprisingly smooth striker considering his inexperience. Holtzman will not be able to easily put Emmett on his back, but he should be able to put him against the cage and test his composure. Holtzman by unanimous decision is the pick.

Women’s Bantamweights

Leslie Smith (8-7-1) vs. Irene Aldana (7-2): Aldana made some waves in Invicta Fighting Championships, but the young prospect -- she debuted just four years ago -- has a hard test in front of her for her UFC debut in the form of perennial tough-out Smith. Aldana is an aggressive striker with some nice tendencies. She moves her head on the way in, feints and counters when her opponent opens up. Being young and inexperienced, however, she makes mistakes. Her head movement can be exaggerated and predictable, and she can be a little too willing to absorb punches on her way in. At this point, there does not seem to be much intention of removing the technical errors from Smith’s game, but her innate awkwardness works to her favor. Smith is even more hittable than Aldana and a little less crisp with her hands, but she is well known for her cast-iron toughness and daunting work rate. This one should look mostly like a kickboxing match, and while Smith could end up overwhelming the less-experienced newcomer, Aldana’s own toughness should allow her ample opportunities to exploit her superior technique. The pick is Aldana by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Eddie Wineland (22-11-1) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (21-10-2): Wineland was looking all but done when he spent three rounds wondering what to do against Bryan Caraway in July 2015. A year later, however, Wineland took on the tough Frankie Saenz and got a much-needed win. He was feinting more, pressuring more and pulling the trigger more, which means inflicting serious damage when you hit as hard as Wineland. If the same Wineland shows up again, then Mizugaki will have a difficult task on his hands. Mizugaki has some power of his own, but he lacks Wineland’s killer instinct. He does, however, throw at a steady pace and mix in takedown attempts to keep his opponent honest. To win, Mizugaki will need to pressure Wineland relentlessly; Mizugaki rarely wins without a significant volume advantage, and by accepting the risks and pushing the pace from the get-go, he just might be able to get to Wineland after a round or two. If the same rejuvenated Wineland shows up, there is no reason to deny his chances of victory. As for me, I am not yet certain Wineland is truly back. The pick is Mizugaki by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Hector Sandoval (12-3) vs. Fredy Serrano (3-1): Sandoval throws as if he knows everything there is to know about fistfighting, whereas Serrano fights like he knows exactly how much more he has to learn. A brawler by nature, Sandoval throws absolutely everything with heat, and absolutely everything is more often than not haymakers. He is a capable scrambler, but everything he does well is only done at a sprinter’s pace. Sandoval has fought to a few decisions, so stamina is not an issue, but the same cannot be said for discipline. Serrano, on the other hand, is taking the Sergio Moraes path to MMA greatness, except instead of top-notch Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he enters the Octagon with good old-fashioned wrestling as his base. Serrano’s ability to employ that wrestling, however, is compromised by his stilted, piecemeal kickboxing game. Sandoval has far more valuable experience, and his game is more fluid, even if does tend to get a little crazy. Sandoval by second-round TKO is the pick.

Welterweights

Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1) vs. Sultan Aliev (13-2): There is something strange about Velickovic. He seems to possess a surplus of wiry strength but too often fights at a range from which that bodily strength is useless. He has some decent striking technique but seems to get caught in ruts, falling for the same traps minute after minute with no signs of adjusting. Velickovic strikes me as the kind of fighter whose stamina and durability would lead him to victory nine times out of 10 in a fight with no time limits. In a regular 15-minute bout, however, his game needs some work. Aliev is a perfect opponent against whom to build some much-needed experience. A powerhouse of a fighter, Aliev is accustomed to racking up damage with his stiff-but-effective striking. Against craftier competition, though, Aliev’s predictable, upright advances have gotten him into trouble. Velickovic should be able to outwork Aliev and show off some new wrinkles in the process. If he cannot, it may take some serious transforming before he starts to look like a prospect again. The pick is Velickovic by unanimous decision.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.