Preview: UFC on ESPN 18 Main Card

Wasting NO TIME!!@SatoTenTen gets the early finish #UFCVegas4 pic.twitter.com/i1R2TJwJYs

— UFC Canada (@UFC_CA) June 28, 2020

Welterweights

NR | Miguel Baeza (9-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. NR | Takashi Sato (16-3, 2-1 UFC)

ODDS: Baeza (-155), Sato (+135)

While there is some potential for fireworks, this is a strange matchup between two fighters who somehow manage to blend patience and violence. Baeza is building an interesting power striking game, but his UFC debut in 2019 showed that he is still a developing fighter. Against Hector Aldana, “Chocolate Thunder” was content to take things slow and just pick apart Aldana before one too many leg kicks eventually stopped the fight. His win in May against Matt Brown was a legitimately impressive showing that proved Baeza is definitely a talent to watch. Brown’s aggression forced Baeza into some uncomfortable situations, and the prospect managed to keep his poise and return fire for a knockout victory. Baeza showed he could take a punch and keep fighting, but his lack of defense at the moment means he will probably take more punches than he needs to. That is where Sato has his opportunity. Sato is a dedicated counterstriker, and while that is a tough style to maintain at the UFC level, he has managed to win two of his three Octagon bouts. It took Sato a while, but he eventually found his perfect punch against Ben Saunders, and Jason Witt was the type of defensive blank canvas that he had little issue taking care of. To his credit, Sato seems to be aware that his patience can be a liability and looked much more active in the brief moments before he knocked out Witt. However, this fight should tell a lot about whether that was an actual choice or just an effect of getting a perfect stylistic matchup. There is the chance for some sudden violence in this one, but it figures to be slow going until it gets there. Baeza should be content to throw big single strikes at range, and unless Sato has completely revamped his style, the Japanese fighter figures to just wait for an opportunity. Sato could find another knockout, but the guess is that Baeza’s size and reach will insulate him and allow him to coast. Baeza by decision is the pick.

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