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Welterweights

Vicente Luque (14-6-1) vs. Bryan Barberena (14-5)

ODDS: Luque (-365), Barberena (+305)

Luque looked impressive on his season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but his middling pre-UFC record suggested he would be one of those fighters who looked good on the reality show, only to cool off badly on the proper UFC roster. Instead, Luque has become one of the more underrated successful fighters in a deep welterweight division. Most fighters cannot get away with hunting for the finish during an entire bout, but thus far Luque has managed to do so, owing to some vicious knockout power and some slick submission skills. Luque throws heat first, second and third, then dives on chokes when his opponents get too tired of striking with him. Leon Edwards managed to survive the barrage and wear out Luque for a decision win, but outside of that, Luque has brought the action every time out. That makes it a bit surprising that, despite seven wins in his last eight fights, the UFC has not pulled the trigger on a big fight for Luque. Instead, it put him against a perennially tough spoiler in Barberena.

“Bam Bam” made his name as a prospect-killer back in 2016. An anonymous lightweight in the process of moving up to welterweight, Barberena stopped the Sage Northcutt hype train with a submission win before scoring one of the biggest upsets of the year by outlasting Warlley Alves. Colby Covington was eventually able to outwrestle Barberena and break his streak, but he has stuck around as a tough grinder with some surprising finishing ability. While Joe Proctor and Jake Ellenberger were not the most durable opponents, the way Barberena handled them showed that he can at least crack. Like Luque, Barberena’s most recent loss was to Edwards, and like Luque, he also gave the Brit a tough fight. This is a solid chance for Barberena to get a good win and start upending hype trains once again.

Luque might be the better fighter in aggregate, but Barberena appears to be quite the poor style matchup. Luque is dependent on his quick finishes, and a knockout here probably is not in the cards, since Barberena has proven to be ridiculously tough in his fights thus far. A submission might be possible, but again, Barberena is a tough clinch fighter who should be able to wear out Luque before the Brazilian can clamp down on something. Maybe Luque hits hard enough that he can just crack Barberena’s chin, but this could look a lot like the Edwards loss for him, with Barberena grinding him against the cage and leaving him to unsuccessfully fight through an empty gas tank by the third round. The pick is Barberena via decision.

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