Welterweights
Mike Perry (14-7) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (13-2)
Odds: Rodriguez (-175), Perry (+155)
For better or for worse, it looks like the UFC is squeezing everything they can out of Perry. Perry's UFC debut basically set the tone for the next four and a half years; he obliterated Hyun Gyu Lim with his power boxing game inside of the cage, but there was just as much talk afterwards about his corner man's racist comments regarding Lim prior to the fight. And so it went on -- Perry continually impressed as a hard-nosed brawler with extreme knockout power, showed enough charisma to have some legitimate star potential, and then would usually waste that goodwill in some sort of problematic manner. Perry's 2018 loss to Max Griffin was the obvious point of diminishing returns; it was seemingly set up as an easy bounce-back win for Perry in front of his hometown fans in Orlando, but Griffin easily outmaneuvered Perry's hard-charging style to earn the upset win. Perry still managed to earn some impressive wins in the next few years, beating Paul Felder and Alex Oliveira along with a near-victory against Vicente Luque, but it became obvious that even with some camp changes, the "Platinum" one just wasn't evolving as a fighter, continuing to lean on his toughness and physicality. That's what made his 2019 loss to Geoff Neal seem like the death knell for his career; Neal knocked Perry out in just 90 seconds, and Perry's approach figured to be completely exposed without his durability. Thankfully for Perry, that knockout now appears to have been a bit of a fluke, but 2020 otherwise saw things fully hit a downward spiral for Perry. Beyond some worrying incidents outside of the cage, Perry's devolved as a fighter; his corner now consists of his lover and whatever friends apparently decide they want to show up, and his approach to fighting has gotten even more bare bones. Oddly, there's been some flashes of an improved grappling game in a strange late-career pivot, but otherwise Perry keeps marching forward with less options than ever. He still managed to bully around Mickey Gall, but things got ugly by the end of Perry's fight against Tim Means, who basically hit Perry at will during the later stretches of their bout. Perry's obviously not in a good place, but he's booked for another fight here against Rodriguez. Rodriguez made his UFC debut early last year and quietly had a successful campaign, earning a stunning knockout of Means before racking up two more wins, including an all-out war against Dwight Grant that ended in a first-round knockout. Rodriguez didn't end his 2020 on a high note, getting pressured and controlled by Nicolas Dalby, but "D-Rod" has otherwise proven to be a solidly effective fighter with some surprising punching power. Rodriguez's loss to Dalby does raise some worry that Perry's physicality could lead him to a brutish win, but as long as Rodriguez doesn't get finished, he should be able to take over as Perry burns himself out. The pick is Rodriguez via decision.
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