Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Swanson vs. Lobov’

Lightweights

Joe Lauzon (27-12) vs. Steven Ray (20-6)

THE MATCHUP: Since he first debuted in the UFC over 10 years ago, Lauzon has lived and died by the sword. A prolific first-round finisher, Lauzon has notched 18 submission wins and seven knockouts. The biggest knock on Lauzon has always been his inability to compete with elite competition in the absence of a finish. He has earned numerous fight bonuses for his exciting style, but in 23 UFC bouts, he has only won two decisions, one of them a split nod over Marcin Held and the other over Mac Danzig, who was on a two-fight skid at the time.

Southpaw strikers have often given Lauzon trouble in the past, from Jim Miller and Evan Dunham to Michael Johnson and Anthony Pettis. The reason is Lauzon’s rather rudimentary approach to striking. Against a lefty, he will constantly chase the outside angle, fighting to get his lead foot outside that of his opponent. A southpaw who is not used to this maneuver is not much of a fighter. Skilled southpaws with more nuanced footwork have been able to run “J-Lau” into counters by timing his predictable movement.

That will be a problem against Scotland’s Ray. The man called “Braveheart” is a creditable finisher in his own right, with six knockouts and eight submissions to his name, but he has smartly begun to evolve away from the need for a stoppage. In his most recent showing, a split decision win over a highly experienced Ross Pearson, Ray stuck to a perfect game plan. His performance might not have wowed the crowd, but he intelligently forced Pearson onto the front foot and used a theretofore unseen blend of dynamic kicks and well-timed takedowns to neutralize the dangerous counterpuncher.

The same approach should work well against Lauzon, but Ray cannot afford to take the vicious veteran lightly. Four of Ray’s six losses have come by way of submission, and Lauzon’s ground game is as dangerous and unpredictable as ever. His methods of victory range from the familiar (triangle choke, armbar, rear-naked choke) to the esoteric (triangle kimura, straight ankle lock). Lauzon will need his wrestling to win, barring a death-wish charge into the pocket, where his heavy hands could catch Ray off-guard. Lauzon is not a phenomenal wrestler, but he is capable of hitting a takedown when he needs to. On average, he scores 2.27 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Ray has clearly worked on his wrestling, but his most recent loss saw him taken down five times by Alan Patrick Silva Alves.

THE ODDS: Ray (-200), Lauzon (+170)

THE PICK: Considering the savvy approach Ray took against Pearson, we can expect him to fight patiently and look to wear down Lauzon over the course of the first round. Lauzon will come after him and he is dangerous in every phase, but his striking abilities have a clear ceiling and that ceiling tends to look like a skilled, disciplined southpaw kickboxer. It would be surprising if Ray were to handle Lauzon the way that Pettis and Johnson did, but he is more than capable of turning in a milder version of those performances. Ray by third-round TKO is the pick.

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