Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Overeem vs. Arlovski’

Light Heavyweights

Nikita Krylov (19-4) vs. Francimar Barroso (18-4)

THE MATCHUP: What a fight. While there are many Krylov supporters, the young Ukrainian fighter has yet to prove himself as a consistent contender. Krylov owns 12 submission wins, but his ground game is not particularly well-developed. He makes up for in aggression what he lacks in technique, but his positional grappling still leaves something to be desired.

Krylov also attacks with strange submissions that rely heavily on strength. This lack of foresight haunts him on the feet, as well. Despite some excellent long-range kicks, Krylov is often keen to dive into the pocket, where he swings away recklessly with both hands. Had he picked his shots and used his reach, Krylov might have beaten Soa Palelei in his heavyweight UFC debut. Instead, he went all out trying to finish the much larger man in the second round and exhausted himself to the extent that he was easily finished in the third. Krylov has never won a fight outside the first round; in fact, the Palelei fight was the only time he has ever even seen the second.

Barroso is no world-beater, but he is big, strong and durable. He throws exclusively power strikes and almost never more than one at a time, but he did at least show some technical improvement in his most recent fight. Barroso also knows how to mix up his strikes, though the effectiveness of this is contingent upon the opponent waiting to see what he does next. Barroso’s experience has come against a higher level of opposition than Krylov, and he has plenty of third-round and decision wins to speak for his stamina. Unlike Krylov’s odd assortment of keylock and ankle lock wins, Barroso’s six submissions are of the thoroughly MMA-tested variety: one guillotine, three rear-naked chokes and two submissions by ground strikes.

THE ODDS: Krylov (-185), Barroso (+160)

THE PICK: Krylov is at an age where his potential for rapid improvement is still massive, while Barroso is nearing the end of his career at 36. Still, Krylov has yet to prove he is reliable outside of the first round, while Barroso has proven he can go the distance if necessary. The chances of Krylov landing something devastating while Barroso stares at him from long range are not altogether small, but the chances of Krylov outlasting Barroso and stopping his bull rush wrestling game are even smaller. The pick is Barroso by unanimous decision.

Next Fight » Kowalkiewicz vs. Clark