Flyweights
Tim Elliott (14-7-1) vs. Ben Nguyen (17-6)Both Nguyen and Elliott borrow elements from the game of bantamweight great Dominick Cruz, switching stance with ease and using this frenetic footwork to feint, chase and outmaneuver their opponents. The aims are slightly different, however. Elliott is no slouch as a striker and has developed some potent power in his hands since his first UFC stint, but his strikes typically serve as mere masks for his takedowns. He shoots an average of 6.58 times per 15-minute fight and scores with a remarkable 67 percent of his takedowns. Elliott took down Joseph Benavidez three times in less than four minutes back in 2014. More recently and against a less accomplished wrestler, he brought Louis Smolka to the ground 12 times in a single fight.
As for Nguyen, he has not attempted a single takedown in any of his four UFC appearances. He is not ignorant of the concept of level changing; he simply does it with strikes rather than takedowns: 34 percent of the significant strikes Nguyen has landed in the UFC have gone to the legs and abdomens of his opponents. Nguyen did show solid takedown defense in his last fight, but on the whole, he only defends 67 percent of the shots attempted against him. That is not a bad rate for the flyweight division, but it is not a good rate against Elliott.
THE ODDS: Elliott (-225), Nguyen (+175)
THE PICK: Nguyen is unlikely to knock out the iron-chinned Elliott, especially in the early going, but he might have a chance if he can force him to work hard for two rounds before pouring on the offense in the third. Elliott cuts a great deal of weight to make 125 pounds and has shown the effects in the later rounds of past fights. Nguyen, on the other hand, demonstrated in his stupendous fight with Geane Herrera that he is quite capable of throwing upwards of 15 strikes per minute for three rounds straight. He outpaced Herrera by a factor of three, and he will need to push a similar pace to beat Elliott. Unfortunately for the Australian, he will likely spend the better part of the fight struggling to get back to his feet, and if the beatdown he suffered at the hands of Smolka is any indication, that will be enough for Elliott to get the win. The pick is Elliott by unanimous decision.
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