Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Belfort vs. Gastelum’

Connor RuebuschMar 10, 2017

Women’s Bantamweights
Bethe Correia (10-2) vs. Marion Reneau (7-3)

THE MATCHUP: Correia has never captured the hearts and minds of the UFC fanbase at large. However, she consistently takes part in competitive kickboxing battles, and while they may not reverberate with the same tension as, say, a heavyweight brawl, they are scrappy and entertaining nonetheless. Correia is a bruiser at heart. Unfortunately, she lacks the power and speed necessary to simply stand and trade with her opponents, but recent performances have seen her utilize head movement and a hard jab to help fill in the gaps.

Still, Reneau is the superior athlete by most metrics. Even at 39, the signs are there: Reneau explodes to cover or create distance with ease, and her strikes end in a snap rather than pushing through the target. Despite this, Reneau is not necessarily the more effective kickboxer. She relies largely on straight punches and single kicks, which limits her effectiveness to short engagements and long ranges. When Reneau does try to throw a combination, her opponent can easily smother the flurry of ones and twos by standing her ground and firing back -- or grabbing the clinch. Correia attempts 11.22 significant strikes per minute compared to Reneau’s 9.84 and also lands at a higher percentage, likely because she is better suited to slugging it out in the pocket. Reneau’s striking is frequently prettier, but she may need to fight against type and outpace Correia to beat her.

A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Reneau is dangerous on the ground, but her takedowns are lacking. As a result, the guard is all we usually see of Reneau’s grappling game. Correia is not averse to shooting the occasional takedown, so we may get to see Reneau’s submission skills anyway. She typically utilizes a high, aggressive guard, tending towards triangles and armbars. Correia has never been submitted, but she has also never spent much time on the ground in a fight. She will need to be careful, lest she suffer the same fate as Jessica Andrade and jump straight into a choke.

THE ODDS: Reneau (-120), Correia (+100)

THE PICK: Since neither Correia nor Reneau tend to control fights through technical superiority, this bout will probably be decided by willpower and output. Reneau is the better finisher, but Correia is simply scrappier. Expect her to stay in Reneau’s face as often as possible and to answer her pot shots with swarming combinations. It will be another in a long line of tough fights for Correia. Fortunately for the Brazilian, each tough fight seems to prepare her to win the next one, whereas Reneau has hardly had to push herself in her last few appearances. Correia by split decision is the pick.

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