Women’s Flyweights
Paige VanZant (7-4) vs. Rachael Ostovich (4-4)ODDS: VanZant (-155), Ostovich (+135)
She is still somehow just 24 years old, but VanZant badly needs to re-establish herself as a prospect -- and fast. VanZant has been a UFC pet project for the last few years and for obvious reasons, mostly relating to her photogenic good looks. At first, VanZant backed that up inside the cage, winning a war over Kailin Curran before scoring an impressive win over Felice Herrig, where VanZant showed off a relentless clinch and grappling game that wore out her veteran opponent. The wheels came off shortly thereafter. First, the UFC badly misread where VanZant was as a prospect, throwing her into the woodchipper against Rose Namajunas for a one-sided loss. Once she came back from that, VanZant had badly regressed as a fighter. She fell in love with an overly flashy but not particularly effective outside striking game, and during the times she pursued the clinch, she found herself getting the worse of the exchanges against fighters like Michelle Waterson and Jessica-Rose Clark. Add in some camp changes and a broken forearm suffered in the Clark fight -- along with a recovery that did not go particularly well -- and VanZant’s career is a complete mess. There is still enough athleticism and natural talent for VanZant to turn it around, but it needs to happen immediately, starting with this fight against Ostovich.
It is impossible to talk about Ostovich without talking about the circumstances under which she is fighting, as she suffered a broken orbital bone in a domestic violence incident in November. Ostovich was briefly pulled from the card but is apparently healthy enough to fight, wishing to serve as an example of how to overcome such hardship. Naturally, that made things even worse when the UFC booked Greg Hardy on this card and put Ostovich in the position of having to defend the decision. Beyond all that, Ostovich is someone else who has gotten a bit of a promotional advantage through her looks; even so, she has turned into a solid-if-unspectacular fighter. At first, she was a one-dimensional submission artist who could easily get overpowered by better athletes, but as time has gone on, she has developed a functional boxing game, even if the strength-and-athleticism gap remains a constant issue.
VanZant should win this one, but if she fails to do so, it is probably a sign that her game is permanently broken. The athleticism gap alone should carry her, and when it comes to striking, she should be the quicker and more powerful fighter on the feet, despite her penchant for low-percentage blows. VanZant should also be the stronger fighter in the clinch, but frankly, given that both women have a tendency to overestimate their grappling, an errant head-and-arm throw may instead be Ostovich’s best path to victory. Add in the concerns about Ostovich coming back too soon from a broken orbital, no matter what the doctors say, and this could be a VanZant showcase. Hopefully this does not end too badly for everyone involved, but the pick is VanZant via second-round stoppage.
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