Preview: UFC 295 ‘Prochazka vs. Pereira’

Featherweights

Pat Sabatini (18-4, 5-1 UFC) vs. Diego Lopes (22-6, 1-1 UFC)

ODDS: Sabatini (-120), Lopes (+100)

A well-paired stylistic matchup kicks off the main card. Sabatini has gone under the radar as a prospect to watch. A well-seasoned talent when the UFC picked him up in 2021, Sabatini came to the UFC as a standout wrestler and grappler readymade to make an impact in a deep division. Indeed, Sabatini kicked off his UFC career with four straight wins that were mostly one-way traffic, the lone exception of the bunch being a fight against Jamall Emmers that saw him get dropped but immediately find a heel hook submission. Sabatini has put in some work with his striking, but it does not look to be a reliable backup plan thus far. Beyond the Emmers fight, Sabatini’s lone loss in the UFC saw him get swarmed and finished by Damon Jackson in a shade over a minute. However, Sabatini rebounded with what might have been his most dominant win to date, a June mauling of Lucas Almeida that ended in a second-round submission. Lopes figures to be a much trickier test. Sabatini is at his best when he has control, while Lopes thrives in absolute chaos. A Brazilian who has laid roots in Mexico, Lopes has made his name off non-stop excitement more so than results. Lopes was on the fringe of a UFC call-up for a while before finally getting his shot earlier this year, though a pairing against fringe contender Movsar Evloev was less than ideal. The end result was still a clear Evloev win, but Lopes did an impressive job of making it a tough fight, sinking in multiple deep submission attempts and forcing the Russian to keep staving off the near-upset. Lopes managed to rebound with a win to prove his UFC-level bona fides, tapping out Gavin Tucker in just 90 seconds in August. There are a lot of potential pitfalls here for Sabatini, particularly on the feet, where Lopes can ignite the type of scrap that saw the American get knocked out by Jackson. Still, the bet is that Sabatini can get to his wrestling early and often, then survive what should still be a dangerous grappling match. The pick is Sabatini via decision.

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Prochazka vs. Pereira
Aspinall vs. Pavlovich
Dern vs. Andrade
St. Denis vs. Frevola
Sabatini vs. Lopes
The Prelims