Heavyweights
#15 HW | Blagoy Ivanov (18-4, 2-3 UFC) vs. NR | Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-7-1, 8-5 UFC)Given that the heavyweight division can sometimes be a funhouse mirror, it is completely possible that Rogerio de Lima has somehow turned a corner at 36 years of age. Coming into the UFC as a light heavyweight in 2014, the Brazilian’s fights were always fairly cut and dry. Either “Pezao” would score a knockout within minutes or things would go south shortly afterwards. Then came a move up to heavyweight in 2018 and an unexpected pivot. Rogerio de Lima won his fight against Adam Wieczorek by fighting completely against type, suddenly busting out a grinding wrestling game that scored him a clear decision victory. Rogerio de Lima leaned on that approach once again in a win over Maurice Greene about a year ago, and with a stunning 32-second knockout of Ben Rothwell in November, the Brazilian is riding his first winning streak in over seven years, which makes this as good a time as any to test him against Ivanov. Making his return after roughly two years, Ivanov is the face of unspectacular heavyweight consistency, which contrasts with the Bulgarian’s interesting backstory. During his time with Bellator MMA, Ivanov was stabbed in the heart during a bar fight in 2012, eventually making an improbable comeback after being placed in a coma. “Baga” then plugged his way up the ranks and through a run as World Series of Fighting’s heavyweight champion before making it to the UFC in 2018. He has since been a solid gatekeeper to the elite. Ivanov has developed a slow-paced and counter-heavy striking game to back up his sambo and judo skills—a combination that is enough to beat his more limited opponents but has run into trouble against consistent pace or dynamism. Given that Ivanov has literally proven unkillable, Rogerio de Lima is unlikely to score another quick knockout, and any grappling-heavy approach from the Brazilian feels like a losing battle. So unless Ivanov has lost his durability at some point during this long layoff, this seems like easy work for the Bulgarian after Rogerio de Lima’s initial onslaught.
FEELY'S PREDICTION: The pick is Ivanov via second-round stoppage.
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