Bantamweights
Cody Garbrandt (11-2) vs. Pedro Munhoz (17-3)Garbrandt finds himself in a strange spot. “No Love” ran a string of quick knockouts to a shockingly one-sided title win over Dominick Cruz, but a blood feud with T.J. Dillashaw saw him lose both his belt and the rematch. Garbrandt does not exactly come off as the smartest guy away from competition, and while he is not quite a simpleton inside the cage, it does seem like the mental aspect of the sport is holding him back. Garbrandt’s game is entirely quick counters based on triggers, which was something with which Cruz had trouble dealing. Cruz’s off-kilter striking is built around darting in and beating his opponent to the punch, but Garbrandt’s elite hand speed allowed him to win every exchange and cruise to a dominant decision. That almost led to his beating Dillashaw in their first fight; Dillashaw threw out strikes to try and feel out Garbrandt, and one of his former Team Alpha Male stablemate’s counters nearly took off his head near the end of the first round. However, Dillashaw adapted in the second round, mostly by throwing kicks, countered Garbrandt’s reactions and dominated the balance of the fight before scoring a finish. When it was time for the rematch, it was just more of the same. Dillashaw carried over all the lessons from their first fight, while Garbrandt was still the same fighter, too reliant on his physical gifts. Naturally, the result was the same, only this time Dillashaw won in even quicker fashion. The strengths and weaknesses of Garbrandt’s game are now laid bare, but the question remains about how much that matters. Yes, Garbrandt’s striking relies on his reaction time and hand speed rather than any overall strategy, but he also has some of the best reaction time and hand speed in the sport. At any rate, the comeback trail starts here, as Munhoz looks to capitalize on the openings that Dillashaw made apparent.
Thanks to some tough matchmaking and a flagged drug test, Munhoz had a slow start to his UFC career, but he has firmly hit his stride as a reliable Top 10 bantamweight. Munhoz’s game is fairly simple if unique. It is entirely based around wading forward with pressure and trying to force his opponents into mistakes. Yes, he is hittable, but Munhoz relies on his durability to constantly throw back, and once his opponent starts to panic and grapple, it is all over, as he has one of the nastiest guillotine chokes in the sport. It has its flaws, particularly with an opponent who can outrun him or beat him to the punch, but Munhoz consistently brings action and leaves his opponents with little room to breathe.
There are interesting matchups for Garbrandt as he tries to work his way back to a title shot, but this is a fairly forgiving one. In terms of overall level, these two are probably pretty close, but Munhoz’s defensively porous pressure style is tailor-made for Garbrandt to tee off as he sees fit; and while Munhoz has proven particularly durable, the type of dynamite that Garbrandt packs should end this sooner rather than later. Garbrandt is at his worst when his opponent stays cautious and does not give him openings. That will not be the case here. The pick is Garbrandt via first-round knockout.
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