Light Heavyweights
Jim Crute (9-0) vs. Sam Alvey (33-11, 1 N/C)
Odds: Crute (-130), Alvey (+110)
There's a lot to be said about the UFC running too many shows nowadays at the risk of flattening out the roster's starpower, but on the bright side, at least the vast international schedule is allowing Sam Alvey to score a bunch of free family vacations. "Smilin'" Sam is certainly a sight to behold, as he's a giant, grinning ginger who seems just a bit off, always accompanied by his oft-pregnant wife-slash-cornerwoman. The strangeness continues inside the cage, as Alvey's fight style is impressively dedicated to inactivity; Alvey's little else but solid takedown defense and a big right hand, but he's willing to stay out of harm's way until his opponent gives him an opportunity to send a knockout punch straight down the middle. At its best, this makes for some cartoonish violence, but at its worst -- and it's often at its worst -- Alvey's fights simply become nothing-happening slogs. Alvey was one of a bunch of middleweights who decided to move up to a much-weaker division at 205, and through two bouts, that decision was paying off. But after a surprising knockout to an aged Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alvey takes his brood to Melbourne in search of a rebound win over Jim Crute.
Crute seemingly had a contract in the bag via Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series - his entry was part of a promotional deal with AirAsia and Crute was served up a weak opponent -- but he's still a light heavyweight prospect worth monitoring. Crute's somewhat of a throwback to Australian prospects past, an offense-first brawler who can get by with some decent wrestling on the regional scene, but the good news is that light heavyweight is also a division stuck a few years in the past. So Crute was able to show off all the impressive aspects of his game against Paul Craig in his UFC debut this past December, and while Alvey is a huge step up for the 22-year old, he still has a high ceiling and could run through the lower reaches of the roster in fairly short order.
Alvey wasn't Crute's original opponent, and per Crute, he decided to choose the toughest of the replacements that the UFC offered. Good on Crute for trying to take on a challenge, but that may not work out all that well for him here. There's always the chance that Alvey will give up a fight due to 15 minutes of sheer inactivity, but even in his "DWTNCS" bout, Crute was getting lit up and countered in what should've been an easy win. Again, Crute has a solid ceiling, but his striking defense in particular isn't up to snuff to take on Alvey; add in that Alvey should be able to keep this on the feet, and this may be a bit of a downer for the Melbourne faithful to open up the main card. The pick is Alvey via first-round knockout.
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