Featherweights
Cub Swanson (25-9) vs. Renato Carneiro (12-1-1)ANALYSIS: Once again, Swanson finds himself on the outside of the featherweight title picture looking in. His eight-second loss to Jose Aldo at WEC 41 will always haunt his career, but the California native has done a solid job of chasing down that rematch against the all-time featherweight great in the decade since. A six-fight winning streak had Swanson firmly in title contention in 2014, but one-sided losses to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway took away that status almost as quickly as it came. After a year off, Swanson put together another winning streak, but losses in his last two fights -- this time to Brian Ortega and in a rematch with Edgar -- have left him a bit adrift once again. With that said, Swanson is a perennial contender for reasons beyond his exciting fighting style, so it is safe to assume that he may have another run left in him. Still, beating Carneiro is going to be a tough ask.
Brazil’s Carneiro came into the UFC as a known submission specialist and lived up to the hype with a victory over Tom Niinimaki in December 2014. Despite his top prospect status, “Moicano” had difficulty maintaining his momentum, mostly due to injuries; a narrow win over Zubaira Tukhugov at UFC 198 was Carneiro’s only fight in the ensuing 27 months. That layoff made it surprising when “Moicano” got the call to face Jeremy Stephens at UFC on Fox 24 and even more surprising when he actually won by fighting against type and showing an intelligent range striking game. In the two fights since, Carneiro’s shown off his skills as a smart, well-rounded fighter; he was one of many men to win the balance of a bout with Ortega before suffering a third-round submission and rebounded with a dissection of fellow rising prospect Calvin Kattar.
ODDS: Carneiro (-410), Swanson (+330)
THE PICK: UFC 227 is something of a three-fight show. This bout firmly belongs in that tier, as it pits one of featherweight’s sturdiest veterans against a blue-chip prospect. While Swanson is more than capable of winning a pure kickboxing match here, I have to favor Carneiro. The Brazilian has looked excellent on the feet and has a potent grappling game to fall back on, even if it has been a while since he put it to good use. Add in some concerns about Swanson’s mental state coming off of the Edgar rematch, and this looks like Carneiro’s fight to lose. In what should be a fun three-round affair, my pick is “Moicano” via decision.
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