Preview: UFC 209 ‘Woodley vs. Thompson 2’

Heavyweights

Alistair Overeem (41-15) vs. Mark Hunt (12-10-1)

THE MATCHUP: If you are looking for a convenient word to describe this matchup, it just might be “decline.” Hunt and Overeem are approaching the twilights of their combat careers. Hunt has been fighting since 1999, transitioning from kickboxing to MMA in 2004 but only really hitting his stride as a mixed martial artist in 2011. Overeem is eight years younger, but he has been fighting just as long, jumping back and forth from MMA to kickboxing before fully recommitting himself to MMA in 2011.

Despite the somewhat similar shapes of their careers, however, Overeem and Hunt have always been very different fighters, and they have evolved in very different ways. Overeem has never had a great chin: He is tied with Andrei Arlovski for most knockout defeats (10) among active UFC fighters, and now, it is more broken than ever. In response, Overeem has adapted his style. Rather than charging forward and muscling his opponents in the clinch, he is more likely to dart about the cage, forcing them to give chase and peppering them with pot shots and counters as they do. Because Overeem has always been a bit of a bully, prone to strong starts and sudden routs, this style seems to help preserve his mental strength as well as his chin. Rather than exhausting himself or risking a knockout in a dangerous exchange, Overeem now prefers to control his opponents through more subtle means.

Time brings all men low, however, and Overeem’s loss to Stipe Miocic was not inspiring. Though he twice managed to hurt an aggressive Miocic on the counter, he responded very poorly when the champion refused to go away. Shelling up and literally running away for long portions of the single round, Overeem seemed to lose all confidence before being knocked out cold via ground strikes.

Hunt’s chin is weakening, too, but that means something very different for him than it does for Overeem. Hunt is known for a concrete head and brick fists. The concrete may be crumbling, as evinced by the three times Hunt has been knocked out since 2013, but the integral structure is still there. Even when he is being hit with perfect flying knees from Fabricio Werdum, Hunt is still conscious and fighting back when the referee saves him. Even as he endures five straight rounds of brutal punishment from Miocic, Hunt is only technically knocked out, not separated from his senses a la Overeem; and of course, the bricks in his gloves remain as heavy and dangerous as ever.

Hunt’s real decline has been more subtle. He seems less willing to pull the trigger and slightly less quick when he does. Hunt has never been light on his feet, but he has always possessed the ability to attack with bursts of shocking speed. Those bursts are more infrequent and sluggish than ever before. This is simply age catching up to Hunt. The reluctance to bite down and throw is likely a product of failing stamina, whereas the degradation of speed is something we have seen in nearly every old fighter. Still, Hunt has looked pretty good over the last two years, dominating two shopworn former contenders and staging a competitive fight with a resurgent -- and allegedly chemically enhanced -- Brock Lesnar.

THE ODDS: Overeem (-131), Hunt (+111)

THE PICK: This style matchup should favor Overeem. With his footwork, speed and reach advantage, he should be able to run a stalking Hunt around the ring and pick his spots. At this point, however, it is decidedly difficult to trust Overeem to perform to expectations. Overeem’s shaky confidence was always a bigger problem than his chin -- it was usually only after he became desperate that opponents managed to catch him -- and the Miocic fight revealed the limitations of the new style designed to mitigate that problem. Overeem is still vulnerable; and worse, he knows he is vulnerable. Hunt, on the other hand, is a blood-and-guts warrior right down to the bone. It takes an unbelievable beating or a truly perfect blow to stop him, and he fears neither of these outcomes. Overeem will likely enjoy some early success in a slow-paced fight, but eventually, I expect Hunt to get to him. Hunt by second-round knockout is the pick.

Last Fights » The Prelims