Preview: UFC 203 ‘Miocic vs. Overeem’

Women’s Strawweights

Jessica Andrade (14-5) vs. Joanne Calderwood (11-1)

THE MATCHUP: Calderwood is in many ways similar to Donald Cerrone. She is long and tall, leans on her kicks and knees and likes to fight in the clinch; and she tends to start slow. Like Cerrone, Calderwood has undergone something of a revolution lately. In her fight with Valerie Letourneau, Calderwood showed off an improved jab, more subtle footwork and better timing on her clinch entries. She largely avoided the Letourneau’s boxing game and punished her at long range with her diverse and accurate striking.

Change happens slowly, however, and Calderwood was not flawless in her performance. Letourneau had a bit of a comeback midway through the fight, and Calderwood still paid for her upright stance and relatively slow feet, eating a few grazing head kicks and stiff right hands from the Canadian. Andrade will not be able to hit Calderwood as easily as Letourneau did, being five inches shorter of height and nearly seven inches shorter of reach, but she is the exact opposite of a slow starter. As Calderwood spends the first moments of the bout warming up or pushing a pace with which she is not yet comfortable, Andrade will be throwing heat and lots of it.

“Bate Estaca” lands nearly seven strikes per minute and possesses some of the heaviest hands in the division. She hardly jabs and does not feint, choosing instead to simply walk down her opponents, wait for them to throw and unleash a salvo of looping punches. She attacks the body as well as the head and happily overwhelms any opponent who responds by covering up or retreating. Since dropping from bantamweight to strawweight, Andrade does not seem to have lost any of her gas and will likely be even more powerful than before.

The question is whether Andrade’s tactics are the right ones for Calderwood. “JoJo” has been overwhelmed in the past, but she has also punished opponents for attempting to overwhelm her. Calderwood is certainly a better, more resourceful striker than Jessica Penne, whom Andrade utterly destroyed in her strawweight debut. Perhaps most importantly, she is a better wrestler, too. Andrade has a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but she has frequently been caught on the ground and in exchanges. Both standing and on the ground, Andrade will have to walk a narrow line between pressure and recklessness.

THE ODDS: Andrade (-130), Calderwood (+110)

THE PICK: Andrade is almost certainly going to take the first round, and if she presses hard enough or places a perfect shot, it could very well be enough to get her the finish. If Calderwood can survive the onslaught -- she has the clinch and takedown skills to help with that -- then she will take over as time passes. Andrade relies too much on her strength on the ground, and she has been out-grappled in all three of her UFC defeats, twice giving up the submission. Some part of my heart just sees Andrade flattening “Jojo” at the outset, but the head says otherwise. The pick is Calderwood by third-round submission.

Last Fights » The Prelims