Preview: UFC 189 ‘Mendes vs. McGregor’
Pickett vs. Almeida
Thomas Almeida sports 17 finishes among his 18 wins. | Photo:
Keith Mills/Sherdog.com
BANTAMWEIGHTS
Brad Pickett (24-10, 4-5 UFC) vs. Thomas Almeida (18-0, 2-0 UFC)THE MATCHUP: Blue-chip prospect meets grizzled veteran, as Brazil’s Almeida draws England’s Pickett in a crackling matchup to open the main card. Almeida is undefeated and, aside from his UFC debut against the durable Tim Gorman, has finished all of his victories. Pickett has been a top bantamweight and flyweight for half a decade, but, at 36, seems to be nearing the end of his prime.
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There is nothing the veteran Pickett does not know how to do at this point in his career. He is a solid boxer with a nice straight right-left hook combination that packs some power and a crisp jab, though he rarely moves his head and tends to rely too much on his durability. Wrestling has always been a strong suit of his game, as the longtime American Top Team product shoots a beautiful double with great timing, chains it nicely with singles and knee taps and does an excellent job of using his strikes to disguise his shots. From top position, Pickett really shines. He is a technical ground striker who mixes up his punches to the head and body in combination, generates tremendous force on elbows inside the guard and uses the threat of those shots to open up his passes. Scrambling is a specialty, and he excels at finding the back or sneaking in punches and knees in transition.
BETTING ODDS: Almeida (-1000), Pickett (+650)
THE PICK: That betting line is way out of hand. I favor Almeida, and by a substantial margin, but the implied odds provide value if you think Pickett could win this more than 15 percent of the time. The Englishman’s path to victory is straightforward: Freeze Almeida with strikes, duck under for takedowns and keep it on the mat. Conversely, Almeida just has to keep it standing and let his hands to the talking. The latter seems more likely, particularly given how hittable Pickett is at this stage of his career. The pick is Almeida by knockout in the second round.
Last Fights » The Prelims
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