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Women’s Bantamweights

Liz Carmouche (8-3, 0-1 UFC) vs. Jessica Andrade (9-2, 0-0 UFC)

The Matchup: A high-profile bout against Miesha Tate fell through for Carmouche when an injury left Cat Zingano unable to oppose Ronda Rousey on “The Ultimate Fighter 18.” While Tate was tabbed to resume her rivalry with the women’s bantamweight champion, Carmouche gets the relatively unknown Andrade, a 21-year-old Brazilian whose nickname, “Bate Estaca,” means piledriver in English.

Carmouche proved herself under high-pressure circumstances at UFC 157, threatening Rousey with a rear-naked choke and a neck crank in the first-ever women’s bout inside the Octagon. That “Girl-Rilla” eventually succumbed to an armbar late in the first round is secondary, as the former Marine will forever be a part of mixed martial arts history. Carmouche’s performance against the Olympic judoka briefly illustrated her skill in transitioning to advantageous positions. Faced with a superior athlete, the Team Hurricane Awesome product was unable to dominate through takedowns and ground-and-pound as she had done so well in previous bouts. However, Carmouche figures to have more opportunities to impose her will against Andrade, who has limited standup but still finds ways to close the distance against her opponents.

A product of the Parana Vale Tudo camp, Andrade has finished all nine of her victories by knockout or submission. She has utilized her grappling in the majority of her most recent triumphs, choking out five of her past six victims. Andrade has proven to be tenacious and relentless, and she constantly looks for takedowns and throws. She is especially opportunistic when it comes to applying the guillotine choke, so Carmouche must be cautious not to leave her neck exposed.

Andrade’s skill set seems to match up poorly with the physical Carmouche. The Invicta Fighting Championships veteran usually dictates the tempo of her fights through clinches and wrestling, draining her foes’ cardio before unloading with heavy ground-and-pound from above. Her steady pressure and aggression will gradually wear down Andrade over the course of the fight.

The Pick: Unless Carmouche makes a tactical error while hunting for a takedown, she should be able to gradually overwhelm the young Brazilian. She wins by TKO in round two or three.

Last Fights » The Prelims