UFC Live 5 Preview: The Main Card

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Lightweights
Donald Cerrone (15-3, 1 NC, 2-0 UFC) vs. Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira (14-1, 1 NC, 2-1, 1 NC UFC)

The Matchup: Two guys with dynamic standup and wicked submission games collide in this lightweight showcase, with not a hint of lay-and-pray in the forecast. Oliveira seemed to rebound nicely from his submission defeat to Jim Miller, even though his UFC Live 4 matchup with Nik Lentz ended in a no-contest. Unloading on Lentz with equal parts technical mastery and fury, Olivera was on his way to an important win before what was ultimately ruled an illegal knee ended the bout.

Cerrone, meanwhile, spent much of his WEC career establishing himself as a legitimate tough guy, with good standup, a cast-iron chin and a tricky jiu-jitsu game. The lanky “Cowboy” has a special fearlessness in standing in the pocket and trading with foes, and he slips in nice techniques, ranging from snapping head kicks to booming knees to the chest.

Olivera is a wildly talented prospect, but Cerrone is more experienced against better competition. If Cerrone has one fatal flaw that could be exploited in this bout, it is that he sometimes seems to need to get drilled hard to get his game going. He is probably not as fast and explosive as Olivera, but he has been deep into the well for grueling bouts, and that will prove the difference.

Expect Cerrone to get nailed hard early, come back blazing and a two-way firefight to ensue. Cerrone is probably a bit better in the clinch and in the wrestling department, and those should tip the scales in his favor. If Olivera were to blow him out the way he did Lentz -- illegal knee notwithstanding, as he was winning the bout handily -- it would be a huge boost to his career.

The Pick: Cerrone is just a little too grizzled and battle-tested to get overwhelmed here, especially when he does not break and just keeps coming. He wins by decision.

Jason Probst can be reached at [email protected] or twitter.com/jasonprobst.