UFC 178 ‘Johnson vs. Cariaso’ Preview

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Yoel Romero (8-1, 4-0 UFC) vs. Tim Kennedy (18-4, 3-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: This is a fantastic matchup between two of the middleweight division’s rising fighters. Romero, one of the most decorated wrestlers to ever fight in the UFC and a freakish physical talent, enters this bout on a four-fight winning streak, with three of those victories by crushing knockout. Kennedy, a former part-time fighter by dint of his service in the U.S. Army, has come into his own since making MMA his primary career, winning his last four and cementing his rise with a dominant decision over perennial top-10 fighter Michael Bisping.

For my money, nobody in MMA is capable of doing more astounding things in the cage than Romero. Flying knees, ridiculous high-amplitude throws and laser-sharp straight lefts are the staples of his game, all of them powered by athleticism more akin to a comic-book character than a living, breathing human being. Romero’s wrestling is world-class, with a diverse array of shots, trips, throws and his trademark ankle pick. His takedown defense is not perfect, largely due to his tendency to overreach with his strikes and allow his opponent to get deep on his hips, but Romero makes up for it with the scrambling ability one expects from a multiple-time freestyle Olympian with a silver medal. The Cuban’s ability to inflict damage from the sprawl and in transitions is likewise rare and notable.

Striking has become a strong point for Romero. He is a master of changing speeds and manipulating his opponent’s rhythm, throwing chopping, half-speed kicks to the legs and body to open up angles and then following with a vicious left to the body or head. His explosiveness and power are off the charts, and despite his propensity for high-energy movements, the Olympian carries his power and consistent output late into the fight.

Kennedy could not be more different. A straightforward wrestle-grappler with tons of experience, the American depends on cardio, strength and relentless aggressiveness, though he is also an above-average athlete for the division who covers distance well. His striking, with basic boxing and low kicks, is no more than functional, but he has some pop in his hands and uses strikes effectively to cover his clinch entries and shots.

To say Kennedy is stifling when he gets his hands on an opponent is an understatement. He chains together his takedowns effectively, keeps his weight on opponents in the clinch and maintains a heavy base from top position. Kennedy constantly hunts for passes to dominant position and can generate power in his ground striking when the mood strikes, though he is not a particularly dangerous finisher.

BETTING ODDS: Romero (-135), Kennedy (+115)

THE PICK: If Kennedy can exploit Romero’s tendency toward overextending himself and getting taken down, his top control gives him a path to victory against the dynamic Cuban. Relying on an Olympic wrestler to concede takedowns and then fail to scramble back to his feet in two of three rounds seems unlikely, though. I expect Romero to stuff Kennedy’s shots, beat him up in the transitions and work the durable American over at striking range and in the clinch to take a dominant unanimous decision.

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