UFC 177 ‘Dillashaw vs. Barao 2’ Preview

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Lightweights

Ramsey Nijem (9-4, 5-3 UFC) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (10-0, 1-0 UFC)

The Matchup: “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 13 runner-up and eight-fight UFC veteran Nijem takes on Ferreira in an intriguing lightweight battle. Ferreira debuted in the UFC with a stunning and unorthodox submission victory over Colton Smith that took only 39 seconds. The highly touted prospect gets a much stiffer test in the experienced and still-improving Nijem, who has rattled off consecutive wins against low-level competition.

Nijem has evolved considerably since coming into the UFC as a one-dimensional wrestler. The former Division I competitor at Utah Valley University has outstanding physical tools, and he is a dangerous offensive force in each phase of the game: His punches pack a wallop, his takedowns are well-timed and often unorthodox, with throws and outside trips, and he blends guard passes and ground striking in a dangerous combination. He also looks for opportunistic submissions in transitions, though he has yet to complete one. Nijem’s best asset is his pace. He never gets fatigued -- a characteristic that manifests itself in constant kicks at range, punching combinations set up by head movement in the pocket and takedown attempts at close range. With that said, opponents have enjoyed some success in taking down Nijem, and although he has drastically improved his striking defense, he remains quite hittable on the feet.

While we have a good handle on Nijem’s game after eight fights in the UFC, Ferreira is more of a mystery. The Brazilian import to Texas is an absolutely exceptional grappler with slick submission skills and a stifling positional game -- the kind of high-level black belt no sane fighter wants to test on the ground. Ferreira’s wrestling is less impressive; while he has some nifty throws and trips in his arsenal, he does not change levels or shoot with any notable fluidity or explosiveness. Striking-wise, Ferreira spits out a regular diet of round and side kicks at range without much setup, but he is perfectly willing to exchange in the pocket. His best asset on the feet might actually be his ability to throw hard knees from the clinch. Ferreira is hittable, however, and the subtleties of timing, head movement and control of the range are lost on him at this point in his career.

Betting Odds: Ferreira (-185), Nijem (+160)

The Pick: Ferreira is exceptionally dangerous on the ground, and Nijem has conceded takedowns and been submitted in the past as a result of his occasional wildness and lack of polish. Ferreira, however, lacks the technical wrestling skills necessary to impose that approach against a former Division I competitor, and his striking game is too rudimentary and low-output to ensure a victory in a matchup contested at range. Bettors are drastically undervaluing Nijem, who was raw early in his UFC career, and overrating Ferreira on the basis of an admittedly impressive but limited sample. Nijem wins by unanimous decision.

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