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FIGHT ODDS

UFC 164 ‘Henderson vs. Pettis 2’ Preview

Tristen CritchfieldAug 30, 2013
Brandon Vera has not competed as a heavyweight since June 2008. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com


Heavyweights

Brandon Vera (12-6, 8-6 UFC) vs. Ben Rothwell (32-9, 2-3 UFC)

The Matchup: Four stoppages in his first four UFC appearances made Vera a heavyweight to watch early in his career, but after back-to-back losses to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum, “The Truth” left the weight class to embark on an inconsistent run at 205 pounds. With talk of two-division dominance a distant memory, Vera makes his first heavyweight appearance since falling to Werdum at UFC 85 in 2008.

Vera’s valiant effort against the heavily favored Mauricio Rua at UFC on Fox 4 has largely been viewed as a positive, but his inability to mount much resistance when planted on his back will be of great concern against Rothwell. While nobody will confuse Rothwell’s striking with that of even a diminished “Shogun,” the 31-year-old Wisconsin native is a willing participant when it comes to trading punches. Against an undersized heavyweight such as Vera, Rothwell needs to use exchanges as a means to close distance. The International Fight League veteran will do his best work by getting a hold of Vera, battering him against the fence and then transitioning to takedowns. Rothwell’s improved conditioning, which has been evident in both his physique and performance, should aide him in applying consistent pressure.

Vera’s cardio could prove to be an issue, as electing to forego the cut to light heavyweight is not necessarily a good sign. The Alliance MMA product has produced some spectacular results at heavyweight in the past, but it is difficult to know what to expect from him now after a career filled with numerous ups and downs.

When fighting at distance, Rothwell is no match for Vera’s precise muay Thai. The 35-year-old Californian can put on a kicking exhibition when given the opportunity, and his ability to land various strikes in combination is far more advanced than many heavyweights. Couple that with the fact that Rothwell is not known for impenetrable striking defense, and it seems entirely possible that Vera could recapture some of his early-career magic.

The Pick: As beautiful as some of Vera’s muay Thai combinations can be, nothing short of an early highlight-reel knockout will be able to keep Rothwell at bay for too long. Once the bearded big man is able to establish himself as the bully, Vera will gradually wilt. Rothwell wins by decision or late TKO.

Next Fight » Erik Koch vs. Dustin Poirier