Brian Ebersole has not lost in more than three years. | Photo: Jeff Sherwood
Welterweights
Claude Patrick (14-1, 3-0 UFC) vs. Brian Ebersole (48-14-1, 2-0 UFC)
Ebersole’s collegiate wrestling background should serve him well against Patrick, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt who likes to hunt for single- and double-leg takedowns to set up submissions. As with most wrestlers, Ebersole would like to operate from top position, from which he can launch his ground-and-pound in the form of elbows and hammerfists.
Patrick outstruck fellow submission specialist Daniel Roberts at UFC 129, and he should be able to get the best of Ebersole, as well. The Australian-based American has adequate striking, but, despite his basic skill level, Ebersole has never been knocked out. Patrick prefers to use his striking to set up clinches, where he can unleash dangerous knees or change levels for takedowns. The Canadian’s ability to transition to the guillotine choke is uncanny, and, on the mat, he is adept at holding his opponent and finishing submissions. Ebersole has solid defense in that area, however, as he twice escaped guillotine choke attempts from Chris Lytle at UFC 127.
If he can wrestle Ebersole to the mat, look for Patrick to be diligent in his attempts to pass guard. Ebersole’s experience with fighting larger opponents earlier in his career should help him combat Patrick’s tactics in the clinch and in sprawling against takedowns. If Patrick does force him to fight from his back, it will be interesting to see how he responds.
The Pick: If Ebersole can impose his will with wrestling and ground-and-pound, the night will go his way. Patrick will be comfortable on the ground with Ebersole, and his striking is more dangerous than his opponent’s. Ebersole will find himself in some difficult situations, but he will be able to escape several submission attempts. It will not be enough, however, as Patrick’s work on the feet will be the clincher in a narrow decision victory.
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