UFC 136 Preview: The Main Card

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Lightweights
Melvin Guillard (29-8-2, 1 NC, 10-4 UFC) vs. Joe Lauzon (20-6, 7-3 UFC)

The Matchup: Riding a five-bout winning streak that includes a pair of destructive, high-profile stoppages in his last two outings, Guillard is a hot property at lightweight. Gifted with explosive power and unmatched physical tools, he brings a rare kind of striking to the 155-pound division: the ability to take out people in lightning barrages.

That offensive power is backed up by excellent takedown defense, footwork and spry hips, which mean anyone facing Guillard will have to deal with getting the fight to the mat and avoiding his big bombs in the process. In past performances, Guillard has often had the physical edge in obvious tools available, but mental mistakes and conditioning have hampered him in key performances. That is ostensibly in the past, as he is now training with Greg Jackson and has put together some career-defining performances since the two joined forces.

Lauzon presents an interesting test. “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 5 alum is not a strong takedown artist but relies on aggression, conditioning and excellent jiu-jitsu to exploit positions and push opponents to a point where they make mistakes on which he can capitalize. In the stacked lightweight division, where close decisions are often the rule in deciding fights, a victory inside the distance can go a long way to helping make one’s case for moving up the ranks. On paper, this one looks precisely like the kind of bout where a decision is not likely. Lauzon is too game to downshift if Guillard proves too much of a handful on the feet and too dangerous to let “The Young Assassin” lag if he can get it on the ground. Something has to give.

The key element in any fight against Guillard is riding out the storm and getting him to the mat. He has a strong chin and is comfortable trading strikes; moreover, he is exceptionally difficult to take down. The major factor here is Lauzon’s modest wrestling, which may hamper him in closing the gap and taking it to the mat. Guillard excels at punishing tie-up and takedown attempts, during which he often winds up and explodes with a punch, knee or whatever’s available to hurt the opponent and create space for follow-up shots.

There is always the chance that Lauzon could follow the strategy of Nate Diaz, who gauged Guillard correctly and quickly seized the chance to get it to the floor, finishing with a submission. However, Lauzon’s boxing acumen and ability to sling leather is not quite at Diaz’s level. Lauzon is going to get hit in this fight, and that is when Guillard does a job on people. That Guillard simply cannot be dealt with on the feet is a hard reality with which to come to terms; Evan Dunham and Shane Roller learned far too late, and the hard way.

One could envision a polished standup fighter countering this version of Guillard and dictating the direction of the fight, but not a modest striker at Lauzon’s level who lacks to core wrestling needed to put him on the ground.

The Pick: Style-wise, this a favorable matchup for Guillard, and he will punish Lauzon in the first round with counter shots, softening him up for another signature stoppage in the second.

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