UFC 125 Preview: The Main Card

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Lightweights
Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi

The Matchup: If there is a frontrunner for “Fight of the Night,” this is it. Guida-Gomi promises a lot of back-and-forth action, replete with both men attempting to get the pace and secure what will be an all-important factor in the matchup: top position. The jury is still out on how Gomi compares to his wrecking-ball prime self in Pride Fighting Championships, where he was a two-fisted machine that either threw someone a horrible beating or got submitted while going down swinging.

Guida lacks Gomi’s crushing one-punch power, but his stand-up serves him well enough, allowing him to close the gap, keep most opponents honest and facilitate tie-ups to bleed opponents of energy and get the fight to the mat. The longer this one goes, the more Guida’s chances improve.

Gomi’s UFC debut loss to Kenny Florian saw him terribly passive and flat, but he did much to erase that with an impressive 64-second knockout of the usually durable Tyson Griffin in August. While Gomi will have the edge in an extended stand-up battle, Guida is significantly better off his back. He does not panic there, and his stamina is top-notch.

Look for Guida to play it a little safer than usual to start out of respect for Gomi’s power. He will have to make adjustments and get Gomi thinking about defensive wrestling instead of landing his trademark bombs. This is a real hit-or-miss bout, prediction-wise, as Gomi can snuff out anyone with a single shot, while Guida can pretty much outwork and outlast guys who cannot keep him from taking them down.

The Pick: Expect Guida to get drilled hard and rebound, as he battles back and pushes the pace down the stretch en route to a unanimous decision win.

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