Lightweights
Jim Miller (29-12) vs. Charles Oliveira (24-8)Advertisement
Continuing with the theme of the main event, Oliveira is another lightweight veteran attempting to avenge a loss from when he was a prospect. Oliveira burst onto the UFC scene at 20 years old, showing off his ridiculous submission chops by tapping out Darren Elkins and Efrain Escudero in his first two Octagon appearances. Naturally, the UFC decided to immediately throw him into the meat grinder, putting him against a top lightweight contender in Miller, who beat Oliveira in less than two minutes. From there, Oliveira’s career was fairly schizophrenic, in no small part due to the UFC’s matchmaking. It would throw him a few softballs, then immediately put him in fights against top contenders like Cub Swanson or Frankie Edgar, only to have Oliveira suffer one-sided losses. The result is that Oliveira’s confidence has been shot like few fighters before him. As soon as a fight turns against him, Oliveira’s body language becomes terrible and he absolutely caves, to the point where he lost to Max Holloway via what was apparently a phantom injury. That is not to say that Oliveira lacks considerable ability. He looks to have finally settled in at lightweight and has supplemented his elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills with a strong pressure striking game. However, when things go off the rails in his fights, they go up in flames.
On the other side, this Oliveira rematch comes at a point where Miller has for yet another time managed to revive his career. Miller has been a stalwart of the UFC’s lightweight division to such an extent that he is seemingly competing with Donald Cerrone for every longevity record in the company. However, starting around 2015 or so, it looked like years of wars were finally catching up to him, particularly after a one-sided loss to Diego Sanchez. As it turns out, Miller had been fighting with an undiagnosed case of Lyme disease, and as soon as that was treated, he started looking closer to his old self. After a few wins, things started to spiral downwards again. Losses to Dustin Poirier and Anthony Pettis were fine, but once Miller was consistently getting beaten to the punch by Francisco Trinaldo and Dan Hooker, questions started to be asked. On the plus side, the Hooker loss looks a lot better just eight months later, and Miller quieted the doubters with a one-sided shellacking of Alex White in September, proving he still has something to offer.
Miller’s recent four-fight losing streak does look better over time, but Oliveira is still closer to the level of the guys who have beaten him than he is to White. Miller showed he can still crack against White, and Oliveira is nothing if not flammable when he gets hit hard. As a result, Miller certainly has a chance to cause some damage early. With that said, Oliveira has all the physical advantages, and when he is not imploding, he looks to be in career-best form when it comes to putting together a process and hunting for a finish. He should be able to march down Miller, hit something hard and go for his neck, so long as Miller does not tag him first. The pick is Oliveira via first-round submission.
Next Fights » Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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