Preview: UFC on Fox 25 ‘Weidman vs. Gastelum’

Bantamweights

Jimmie Rivera (20-1) vs. Thomas Almeida (22-1)

THE MATCHUP: As far as divisional relevance is concerned, this bout may as well be the co-main event of the card. Rivera is knocking at the gates, demanding a title shot. His cool win over Urijah Faber proved he is a new breed of fighter, but Rivera needs to make a statement to have his demands heard. As for Almeida, he has yet to translate his famously violent style to an elite level and fell short in his biggest test -- a bout with current champion Cody Garbrandt. A win over Rivera, however, would vault Almeida into the upper echelon and afford him the chance to demand his own title shot. In short, the winner of this fight could be making waves in the very near future.

The aforementioned clash with Garbrandt highlighted Almeida’s shortcomings. A pressure fighter, Almeida feels most comfortable when he is taking the fight to his opponent. However, the close range created by his aggression leaves Almeida particularly vulnerable until he has had a few minutes to observe his opponent. Garbrandt landed with power before Almeida could get warmed up. It was not the first time that Almeida had been forced to eat heavy shots in the first round, but Garbrandt’s punches were particularly potent and knocked out the Brazilian. His comeback win over Albert Morales was no walk in the park, but at least Almeida seemed no worse for the wear and fought through some adversity before finding yet another first-round finish.

Rivera is a lot more like Garbrandt than Morales. He, too, has a knack for pressure fighting. His exceptional command of distance and well-developed defense allows him to close the distance and counter a panicked foe. In terms of skill, however, those counterpunches are Rivera’s bread and butter, and they work just as well whether he is moving forward or backward. Rivera complements withering low kicks with heavy hands, but he is often too cautious to pursue the finish with gusto. As you might have guessed, Rivera is not perfect, either. He has a tendency of starting fights with a bang and ending with a bit of a whimper; and while Almeida starts fast, he actually gets sharper and more focused in the later rounds. If this one makes it to Round 2, we will almost certainly be in for a very interesting fight, and if Almeida conserves his energy in the first round, it could end up being quite a chess match.

Wrestling may play a minor role in this contest. Both men are confident strikers, but Rivera in particular knows how to lean on his wrestling game when the opponent proves difficult. In the early days of his career, Rivera often found himself confronted with cautious opponents, and cage wrestling was his method to control them and win the fight. Almeida will give him no shortage of opportunities to trade blows, but Rivera may still want to invest in the occasional takedown attempt, if only to open up his striking.

THE ODDS: Rivera (-200), Almeida (+160)

THE PICK: Rivera excels because of his counterpunching. He is an extremely well-prepared fighter, and few bantamweights pick up on triggers as readily as he does. In the opening minutes, when Almeida is most hittable, Rivera will have dozens of surprises in store, most of them in the form of some kind of blistering punch combination. Rivera is not much of a finisher despite his potent boxing, so Almeida will likely survive to the point that he can start forcing his fight. With that said, Rivera has one secret weapon, and it happens to be a favorite of Almeida himself: the Team Tiger Schulmann rep is an excellent body puncher and should be able to take the sting off of Almeida’s comeback by assaulting his organs in the early going. The pick is Rivera by unanimous decision.

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