Preview: UFC on Fox 24 ‘Johnson vs. Reis’

Featherweights

Jeremy Stephens (25-13) vs. Renato Carneiro (10-0-1)

THE MATCHUP: Stephens has struggled to put together a meaningful win streak in his new featherweight home, but he continues to be a tough test and a consistently dangerous gatekeeper to the 145-pound elite. Though once a crude brawler, Stephens has sharpened his weapons considerably since moving down in weight. His trademark power punches are even more formidable against the smaller competition, and he has improved his footwork to account for the speed differential. Stephens likes to apply pressure, but he places his punches more carefully than before, setting up his power punches and kicks with a stabbing jab. Despite the tactical improvements, Stephens is still capable of throwing down when the need arises. His success against Renan Barao, for example, came as a result of his willingness to march forward and trade leather with the smaller fighter.

Carneiro is certainly one of the best prospects at featherweight, but he will be taking on the best opponent of his career here. “Moicano” is known as a submission artist -- and for good reason. The Brazilian is an exceptional scrambler with a lightning-fast back take. Five of his 10 career wins have come via rear-naked choke. However, he is not lost on the feet. Though his kickboxing game is still coming together, he displays excellent timing and a keen sense of range. Carneiro’s jab is fast and sharp, and he has an excellent kicking game, based mostly on thudding leg kicks.

We may not see much grappling in this contest. Stephens is a capable wrestler, but Carneiro’s takedown defense is superb, and the former will be aware of the danger in tangling with the submission ace on the ground. “Moicano” is not a bad wrestler himself, but Stephens has always been difficult to take down, and his size and strength at featherweight only make that task more difficult.

THE ODDS: Stephens (-235), Carneiro (+185)

THE PICK: In all likelihood, this bout will look very much like a repeat of Stephens’ fight with Barao. “Moicano” has less wear and tear on his body than the former bantamweight champion, but he is also significantly less experienced. Relatively slow-footed, Stephens will absorb a few kicks as he works to close the distance, but he knows how to incrementally narrow the gap before exploding with a power strike. Stephens may not knock him out, but he should be able to land the big shots and steal rounds as a result. The pick is Stephens by unanimous decision.

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