Preview: UFC on Fox 18 ‘Johnson vs. Bader’

Welterweights

Sage Northcutt (7-0) vs. Bryan Barberena (10-3)

THE MATCHUP: Whatever was expected of his bout with Cody Pfister, the action of the fight was a helpful reminder that Northcutt is still very much a prospect. Northcutt did not react particularly well to Pfister’s early pressure, trying so hard to stay out of range that he ran himself into the fence, tried for a flashy sidekick at too short a distance and ended up on his back within the first 10 seconds of the first round. From the bottom, he ate his fair share of short shots and failed to capitalize on several glaring mistakes in the posture and hand positioning of Pfister. After several minutes on his back, Northcutt only managed to turn the tide with a takedown of his own after a questionable referee standup. So yes, there are problems with his MMA game.

The good news is that Northcutt is only 19 years old. He is outrageously explosive, with power and speed reminiscent of an early Georges St. Pierre; and speaking of GSP, Northcutt is supposedly back to training part-time at Tristar Gym with the former champion, as well as current contender Rory MacDonald and MMA maestro Firas Zahabi. Northcutt hits hard, moves well, covers distance with lightning speed and blends his wrestling and striking together into one confusing package. His future remains bright.

Of course, Northcutt is also staying active and not shying away from tough matchups. Originally scheduled to fight Andrew Holbrook -- which would have been a tough test for him -- Northcutt is now set to battle Barberena, filling in on a week’s notice with only five weeks of training camp behind him. Barberena has twice as much professional experience as Northcutt and eight knockout wins to his name. He is not an elite lightweight by any means, but cries that Northcutt is facing inappropriately easy competition are unfounded.

Barberena is something of a slow starter, which could be a serious problem against Northcutt, who has only twice gone past the first round and both times finished succinctly in the second. Barberena is durable, however, and should he survive the early blitzes, he has some tools that could trouble Northcutt. In particular, Barberena is dangerous in the clinch, a sort of phase between phases that often proves troublesome for inexperienced fighters. He is awkward and hittable while he works his way forward, but he poses a real threat once inside; and he is as determined as he is tough.

THE ODDS: Northcutt (-350), Barbarena (+290)

THE PICK: Barberena’s problem is that he spends about a minute stalking for every shot he throws at range. He feints and measures, but he is just not active enough to apply any kind of meaningful pressure to the young dynamo Northcutt. His chances will improve as the fight carries on, but his success will rely on his ability to land a big, fight-changing blow, and Northcutt is more likely to do that earlier and more often. Without cage control or dominant grappling, Barberena does not have a clear, predictable path to victory. The pick is Northcutt by second-round submission.

Last Fights » The Prelims