Gabriel Gonzaga has gone the distance twice in 24 pro bouts. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
HEAVYWEIGHTS
Gabriel Gonzaga (16-8, 11-7 UFC) vs. Matt Mitrione (8-3, 8-3 UFC)Gonzaga is the definition of a feast-or-famine fighter: Either he finishes his opponent or, given his poor cardio, relative lack of durability and subpar defense, he is likely to be finished himself. He is mostly known as a grappler -- and rightly so -- but he has added a surprisingly proficient striking game piece by piece over the years, beginning with his stunning head-kick knockout of Mirko Filipovic. It is not aesthetically pleasing, and he does not throw crisp combinations, but he does take good angles, has good timing and a solid sense of the range and packs real power in all of his shots.
As befits a crafty veteran, he throws sneaky strikes on clinch breaks and stand-ups from the ground, and while no one will confuse him for a Division I All-American, he is a surprisingly proficient and efficient wrestler who times his shots well. On top, he is monstrously difficult to move, throws hard ground strikes and can pass cleanly, and his transition game is quite dangerous.
A fantastic athlete who had a cup of coffee in the NFL, Mitrione has evolved into a reasonably skilled and deceptively fast striker. He prefers a quick, powerful straight left from his southpaw stance, throws a brutal left kick and sets up things with a clean jab. Offensively, he is surprisingly proficient and technical -- he throws a sneaky counter left with awesome timing -- but his defense relies entirely too much on his length and speed to keep him out of trouble, a problem that shows up most clearly in exchanges at punching range. Mitrione can strike, and that is essentially it. He has solid if not outstanding takedown defense and can survive on his back against mediocre opposition, but he has no real offensive wrestling or grappling games. Still, in a thin division, athleticism and striking skill can take a fighter a long way.
THE PICK: Mitrione will want to keep this out in the center of the cage, where his speed and solid circular movement will give him the greatest strategic advantage; he is also nearly impossible to get to the mat when given space to sprawl or pivot away from a shot. Gonzaga, on the other hand, needs to turn this into a close-range battle against the fence, where he can throw his powerful overhands and work his takedowns. This seems like a coin-flip to me, but I lean toward Mitrione on the basis of his athleticism. “Meathead” by knockout in the first round is the pick.
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