Heavyweights
#5 HW | Sergei Pavlovich (16-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. #4 HW | Tai Tuivasa (14-4, 8-4 UFC)Tuivasa’s loss to Ciryl Gane in September may have stopped the Australian’s surprising charge towards the heavyweight title, but “Bam Bam” was not hurt much otherwise and should remain in the picture for years to come. Tuivasa checked all the boxes upon his 2017 UFC debut as an entertaining knockout artist with some sneaky athleticism and an outsized personality, so it was not a surprise when the promotion quickly tried to make him its next star Down Under. However, that also threatened to ruin Tuivasa’s nascent career. He got knocked out in a main event against Junior dos Santos, looked flat against Blagoy Ivanov and then was out-wrestled and submitted in what seemed like a sure rebound fight against Sergey Spivak. That left Tuivasa firmly on the cut line heading into his 2020 fight against Stefan Struve—a win via first-round knockout that was also the first sign of some much-needed progress. Tuivasa is far from any sort of technical marvel, but he showed a bare minimum of patience and thought that paid plenty of dividends given his natural durability and power. Tuivasa’s 2021 campaign saw him go undefeated with three knockout wins, which in turn led to a breakout victory over Derrick Lewis in February. The fight devolved into a slugfest, but Tuivasa’s second-round knockout was a huge high-profile moment against what had been one of the heavyweight division’s most consistent threats. Given Tuivasa’s fan appeal, it was a bit disappointing to see the UFC subsequently match him against Gane for the promotion’s debut in Paris. It seemed like a fight Gane was set to win and not in particularly inspiring fashion, given his potential ability to outmaneuver and pick Tuivasa apart for five rounds. Gane did walk away with the win, but Tuivasa did about as well as could be expected. He nearly knocked Gane out in the second round and forcing him into a shockingly exciting fight before the Frenchman scored the knockout. Given all that, Tuivasa still should be well-positioned as a fan favorite who just needs a win or two to get back in the title picture, though this fight against Pavlovich could go either way. A former Greco-Roman wrestler, Russia’s Pavlovich fought a surprisingly strong level of competition in the leadup to his UFC debut, enough so that it was not outlandish when the promotion tried to debut him with a splash against Alistair Overeem. That proved to be too much too soon, but Pavlovich regained his hype in short order with quick knockouts of Marcelo Golm and Maurice Greene, looking ready to make another charge up the ranks heading into 2020. Instead, injuries, visa issues and the pandemic left Pavlovich out of action for two calendar years, though he has made up for lost time upon his return this year. A win over Shamil Abdurakhimov in March resulted in another quick knockout, and Pavlovich also scored a breakout win over Lewis—in his case with a 55-second knockout in July. That bout against Lewis quickly turned into a coinflip with both men trading knockout shots, and this should play out similarly. Pavlovich prefers to just march forward and trade, while Tuivasa should be a willing dance partner. From there, this fight clearly could go in either direction. Pavlovich gets the nod thanks to his ability to mix in some wrestling and the fact that he should be the first one to start trading, but the only confident call is that there should be a quick knockout. The pick is Pavlovich via first-round knockout.
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Thompson vs. Holland
Dos Anjos vs. Barberena
Nicolau vs. Schnell
Pavlovich vs. Tuivasa
Hermansson vs. Dolidze
Daukaus vs. Anders
The Prelims