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Middleweights
Albert Duraev (15-3, 1-0 UFC) vs. Joaquin Buckley (14-4, 4-2 UFC)ODDS: Duraev (-220), Buckley (+180)
It has been a strange two years for Buckley under the UFC banner. There was a lot to like about Buckley when he signed in August 2020. His approach was not necessarily the deepest, but as a standout athlete with a surprising ability to consistently throw power for three rounds, things figured to work themselves out in the long run. He figured to be the type of prospect that would improve under the radar as the crush of the UFC’s schedule took up everyone’s attention. Then Buckley’s second UFC fight saw him score one of the best knockouts in mixed martial arts history—a jumping spinning back kick that sent Impa Kasanganay crashing to the mat. Buckley has always been willing to keep up a busy schedule—his UFC debut came just eight days after his previous fight—so the UFC decided to capitalize on the momentum, featuring Buckley as often as possible. That lasted all of two fights—Buckley blasted Jordan Wright in short order but then shockingly got knocked out by Alessio Di Chirico—and it has been weirdly quiet since. Buckley did eventually rebound and showed more patience with a win over Antonio Arroyo in September, but it is hard to know exactly what to make of his February victory over Abdul Razak Alhassan. Buckley surprisingly pivoted to a wrestling-heavy approach, yet also managed to tire first despite Alhassan’s historically suspect cardio. Buckley still has plenty of physical potential, but there are more questions than ever about what exactly that amounts to against Duraev. Russia’s Duraev was a standout of the 2021 season of Dana White’s Contender Series, which was unsurprising. “Machete” had already put together the type of strong resume that should have earned him a UFC contract outright. Between his crushing wrestling style, vocal willingness to fight often and some cosmetic similarities to Khamzat Chimaev, the hype train got a bit out of control for Duraev ahead of his October UFC debut, only for that momentum to be dulled once his fight against Roman Kopylov actually played out. Duraev still got the clear win, but Kopylov’s fast-handed striking prevented him from getting off to a hot start and implementing his wrestling early. It turned things into a much uglier affair than expected and saw Duraev tire out over the course of 15 hard minutes. Like Buckley, Duraev’s recent struggles should not distract from the fact that he is still a talented fighter, but in the Russian’s case it is a bit more worrying since he is much likelier to be a finished product. Given that Duraev is not a particularly comfortable striker, there is a chance that Buckley can blast him for a knockout for as long as this fight stays standing. While Buckley has some creativity in his game, his approach is still relatively straight-ahead and lacks elusiveness, meaning that Duraev should be able to find takedowns when he wants them. This figures to be ugly, but the pick is Duraev via decision.
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