Middleweights
Rodolfo Vieira (7-1) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (13-2)Odds: Vieira (-225), Stoltzfus (+185)
Well, hopefully Vieira can rebound from one of the most disheartening losses in recent memory. Vieira came into the UFC with some substantial and deserved hype as one of the best grapplers on the roster, a multi-time BJJ champion who was also developing a solidly effective power striking game. But after unsurprisingly winning his first two Octagon bouts via submission, the wheels absolutely came off for Vieira in his February bout against Anthony Hernandez. Vieira's UFC debut hinted at some cardio issues, and the Hernandez bout turned those into a full-on crisis, as after a few minutes of hard grappling and being unable to find a finish, Vieira was about as exhausted as any man in the history of the UFC - enough so that Hernandez was even able to score a submission finish in the second round. It'll be fascinating to see how Vieira responds to the loss; he's been open in the past about his nerves in transitioning from grappling to mixed martial arts, and his overly-muscular frame does raise the question of how much he can actually improve his cardio. He'll look to rebound against Stoltzfus, who's searching for his first UFC victory.
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An American living and training out of Germany, Stoltzfus was a bit of a mystery man heading into his UFC debut against Kyle Daukaus in November. Stoltzfus's level of competition on the German scene didn't portend much, and his Contender Series bout saw his opponent suffer an arm injury from a slam before anything truly got going. Stoltzfus handily lost his bout against Daukaus, but he did show some solid skill everywhere while being outgunned, including some willingness to try things on the ground. That'll be a double-edged sword here - either that's a sign that Stoltzfus has enough in terms of grappling chops to survive against Vieira and tire the Brazilian out, or it means that Stoltzfus will be all too willing to play a losing game while Vieira still has his energy. It's a coin flip, but the most likely pick -- and the call here -- is that Vieira finds a first-round submission.
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