Women's Strawweights
Carla Esparza (16-6) vs. Marina Rodriguez (12-0-2)Odds: Rodriguez (-165), Esparza (+145)
The Brazilian season of Dana White’s Contender Series has given the UFC some surprising prospects, with Marina Rodriguez chief among them. Rodriguez looked like an impressive muay Thai artist heading into the UFC, but Randa Markos seemed to expose some holes in her game during that UFC debut; Markos had a ton of success early with her wrestling game before suddenly abandoning it, so the thought that for as many problems as the Brazilian could cause on the feet, she could quickly be neutralized if her opponent could take things to the mat. That's mostly been true, though Rodriguez's win over Tecia Torres, in which Torres went zero-for-seven in terms of takedowns, showed that getting her to the ground may be easier said than done. Overall, the fact that she's gone to two draws against Markos and Cynthia Calvillo are instructive -- faced with two talented but inconsistent takedown artists, Rodriguez mostly controlled their fights outside of a round apiece that were absolute blowouts on the mat. That makes this match against Esparza both a dangerous one and a huge opportunity for Rodriguez to show that she's improving.
The UFC's first strawweight champion, Esparza has hung around the title picture ever since losing her belt to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and remained one of the division's most underrated fighters. Despite her small frame, Esparza's at her best as a relentless wrestler, and that's been enough to get by in a division mostly devoid of elite grapplers. Since dropping the title, Esparza's only tasted defeat three times, and two of those were controversial affairs -- losses to Markos and Gadelha easily could've gone her way, leaving only a blowout defeat against Tatiana Suarez, one of the few fighters who can match "The Cookie Monster" on the mat. Esparza's low Q rating means that she probably won't ever get a chance to reclaim her title, but another win here would mean four straight, at which point she needs to be talked about as a title contender once again.
This is a pretty basic dynamic, and it all depends on Esparza's willingness to wrestle. Esparza finally got around to putting some work into her striking over the last few years, and while it's paid off in a general sense, there are certain fights where she's lost sight of what she's best at, choosing to kickbox rather than just hitting the mat and going to work. That's the main concern here; even if Rodriguez's takedown defense is improving, Esparza's ability to chain together takedown attempts is a level above anything the Brazilian has seen to date. And even if Esparza isn't always immediately willing to turn things to a grind, she usually gets around to implementing that part of her game eventually, at which point she should take this. The pick is Esparza via decision.
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