Lightweight
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-2) vs. Thibault Gouti (11-1)Gouti is a solid and well-rounded Frenchman who was brought into the UFC after a win over Octagon vet Anton Kuivanen in the laconically named Cage promotion. Gouti is a credible puncher, but his UFC debut ended suddenly when his predictable and porous defense was quickly pierced by fellow journeyman Teemu Packalen. Though comfortable hanging out on the feet, Gouti is easy to hit; his ground game is his bread and butter. A capable wrestler, Gouti plays a solid if unremarkable jiu-jitsu game on the ground, preferring to mount his opponents and force a back take into a rear-naked choke. He is also capable of some quick submissions off of his back, if off-balanced.
Aubin-Mercier, however, is a different class of grappler from the sort Gouti is used to beating and a different class of athlete altogether. A hulking 5-foot-9, Aubin-Mercier is every bit as strong as he looks. His game is not yet fully developed, but he continues to show development in his striking while pressing the grappling advantage given him by a black belt in judo. Aubin-Mercier has an excellent back-take game of his own and is more than happy to pile on takedown attempt after takedown attempt until he has his opponent where he wants him. At times, this has gotten Aubin-Mercier into trouble, but Gouti is unlikely to sit on a stuffed takedown and plug away with elbows, a la Tony Sims, or play the kind of bedeviling counter-grappling game employed by Ferreira.
THE ODDS: Aubin-Mercier (-367), Gouti (+301)
THE PICK: Gouti is not a bad fighter, but he is outclassed in just about every department here. Though a more comfortable striker, he is not necessarily better than Aubin-Mercier, and he will be challenged to keep the fight standing for long enough to press whatever advantage he may have. On the mat, Gouti’s game is simply not dynamic enough or consistent enough to contend with Aubin-Mercier’s potent blend of athleticism and skill. The pick is Aubin-Mercier by second-round submission.
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