Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Edgar vs. Swanson’

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HEAVYWEIGHTS

Jared Rosholt (11-1, 3-0 UFC) vs. Alexey Oleinik (49-9-1, 1-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Veteran Oleinik, who debuted in the UFC at the tender age of 37 and with nearly two decades of professional experience, takes on an accomplished wrestler and quick riser in Rosholt. This is a surprisingly relevant bout in the heavyweight division, and the winner will likely get an opponent either in or on the cusp of the top 10.

Oleinik has been around long enough to have lost any illusions about his strengths and weaknesses, and he wastes no time before pushing the fight into his comfort zone. He throws hard combinations of looping hooks to get his opponent to cover up and move back toward the fence, where he changes levels and attempts to get in on their hips for a takedown, usually a double-leg. Although he is not an especially technical wrestler and lacks an explosive shot, he is experienced, strong and uses the cage to his advantage. Failing takedowns, Oleinik is happy to grind in the clinch until he wears down his opponent to the point where he can work a takedown. From top position, Oleinik is a monster. He drops some strikes, waits patiently to pass guard and owns an array of topside submissions, namely his favorite scarf-hold neck crank. There is nothing complicated about Oleinik’s game, but he is difficult to stop.

Rosholt was a three-time NCAA All-American during his time at Oklahoma State University, and his game is still largely predicated on that wrestling prowess and his ability to grind both on the ground and in the clinch. His striking is still slow and not particularly powerful, though it should be noted that he has improved. His wrestling, however, is outstanding and far more explosive than his tendency to plod at range might suggest. He works a nice double and various finishes on his single-legs, all of which he chains together beautifully; and he is an outstanding counter-wrestler. His squat frame and strength make it difficult to separate in the clinch, and on the ground, his control is stifling. Rosholt is almost impossible to shuck off once he puts his weight down, landing a constant stream of punches and knees to the body from wrestling control positions such as the ride.

BETTING ODDS: Rosholt (-220), Oleinik (+185)

THE PICK: This is Rosholt’s fight to lose. Both fighters should be happy to engage in the clinch and in wrestling exchanges, and it is hard to see the more athletic, younger, better conditioned and more skilled wrestler getting outworked by the veteran, especially if Rosholt drags him into the second and third rounds. I expect Rosholt to beat him up with punches and knees to the body in the clinch and on the ground to take a decision or a late knockout finish.

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