Lightweights
Francisco Trinaldo (20-4) vs. Paul Felder (12-2)The Medeiros fight was Trinaldo’s most recent, and it was undeniably his most impressive. Medeiros’ upright style and willingness to trade made him a uniquely easy target for the Brazilian, but the improvements to Trinaldo’s striking cannot be ignored. He is not a beautiful fighter to watch, but there is solid rationale behind his tactics. Trinaldo speared up at Medeiros’ chin with his jab and smashed down with his left hand, each strike playing off the trajectory of the other. His counter right hook was better than it has ever been, and he was quick to punish Medeiros with knees in the clinch. He attacked the body consistently and forced Medeiros to chase him when he needed a moment to regain his energy. Best of all, Trinaldo kept up his swinging for three rounds, throwing an unbelievable 204 strikes and landing 143 of them -- a rate of 70 percent.
I would say fairly confidently that this will be the fight in which Trinaldo’s luck runs out, if only Felder were more disciplined and experienced. Felder suffers from the same bad habit as many other counter fighters: He is patient to a fault, prone to waiting for the perfect shot. Felder seems to only commit when he feels he has a 90-percent chance of landing, when that threshold should be closer to 60 or 70. Then there is the inexperience; Felder is relatively easy to frustrate and trick. Veterans such as Pearson and Joshua Burkman have troubled him, not by being technically superior but by being better gamesmen. Edson Barboza lulled him into a kick-measuring contest and outstruck him while Felder was focused on showing off. In a sense, Felder will never achieve his potential until he learns how to stick to a plan and win rounds.
Technically speaking, Felder is a better fighter than “Massaranduba.” He throws hard punches with good form, moves his head without off-balancing himself and mixes up his strikes. He is also a capable grappler, both in the clinch and on the ground. Felder fights tall on the inside, using knees from the collar tie. Felder rarely chooses to take down his opponent, but he will look for back takes in dicey exchanges near the fence and after sprawling on a takedown attempt. Trinaldo is not an exceptional technician, but he is extremely strong and capable of grinding against the cage and on the mat when need be. Trinaldo does have three arm-triangle choke submissions to his name, but he has leaned heavily on his striking in recent years. If this one goes to the ground, expect Felder to be a little more dangerous.
THE ODDS: Trinaldo (-138), Felder (+118)
THE PICK: Burkman is a cagy, veteran southpaw, and he managed to give Felder a lot of trouble in his last fight. Felder overcame adversity by pressuring Burkman, but it would not have worked so well had Burkman not taken his foot off the gas and stopped moving. Though it is not talked about much, “Massaranduba” is really at his best when he bounces around at long range and lulls his opponent into the pocket. That is how he beat Pearson, Medeiros and Chad Laprise. Felder will be more than willing to come forward, and though he will certainly clip Trinaldo a few times, the Brazilian will be wily enough to trade with him. When Felder does throw, he plants his feet, and that allows mobile opponents to slip away and forces him to chase them down again. In the end, Trinaldo’s willingness to throw is his greatest advantage, and it should allow him to just barely overcome Felder’s technical edge. The pick is Trinaldo by contentious split decision.
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