Flyweights
Mateus Mendonca (10-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Nathan Maness (14-3, 3-2 UFC)Two fighters look for their first win at flyweight in a pairing that came a bit out of left field. Maness had an unexpectedly successful start to his UFC career, racking up three straight wins. Already large for a bantamweight, Maness does not make much use of his size advantage, instead taking fights into close quarters and betting he can win a war of attrition. That led to some impressive comebacks against Luke Sanders and Tony Gravely, but losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Tagir Ulanbekov put a clear ceiling on that approach; both outwrestled Maness, and Ulanbekov found an early submission. The Ulanbekov fight marked Maness’ debut at 125 pounds, but it did not last long enough to get much of a read on if “Mayhem” would look different in his new weight class outside of being even larger than his typical opponents. If he has some new wrinkles, this bout against Mendonca would be a good time to show them. Mendonca was one of the more impressive prospects on the 2022 edition of Dana White’s Contender Series. Already possessing a solid resume on the Brazilian regional scene where he showed a lot of tools, “Bocao” ran through his opponent for a knockout in just 48 seconds. Even though Mendonca looked like a blue-chipper, it was a bit surprising to see the UFC immediately throw him into the deep end against another top prospect in Javid Basharat. Mendonca put together a strong start but eventually wound up finding himself out of his depth against a better opponent by the later rounds. Mendonca is still a prospect to watch, even though this cut to flyweight comes as a surprise and serves as the main concern here. Maness is historically durable, so there is a chance that Mendonca burns himself out if this weight cut is particularly rough. However, the bet is that Mendonca can land the more potent offense even if he has to gut this one out late; and there is still the chance he has enough firepower to finish this outright. The pick is Mendonca via decision.
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Kowalkiewicz vs. Belbita
Aori vs. Munoz Jr.
Murata vs. Demopoulos
Mendonca vs. Maness
De La Rosa vs. Aldrich