Germany, june 2009. All that matters is leaving that cage with your hands raised, that is what I plan on doing this sunday, a little less bloody hopefully this time #mma #ufc #ufchamburg #ufccologne #ufc99 pic.twitter.com/fmIM6XgLxP
— Stefan Struve (@StefanStruve) July 19, 2018
Heavyweights
Marcin Tybura (16-4) vs. Stefan Struve (28-10)
Odds: Tybura (-240), Struve (+200)
Heavyweight is an old division, and Struve is still somehow only 30 years-old, but I think at this point, we can safely write off any hopes that the Dutchman will eventually turn the corner. Struve immediately became a notable prospect once he got on the MMA radar, mostly due to his 7-foot frame; the eternal mantra has been that if only Struve could figure out how to effectively use his reach, he'd be one of the most fearsome fighters in the world. But for years, Struve remained frustrating; he'd show some potential, mostly as an unorthodox submission threat, but also flashing a bit of knockout power, but as soon as it felt like his career was gaining momentum, he'd suffer a brutal knockout loss, tumbling to the mat like a shot giraffe. This reached its peak circa 2013; Struve was riding a four-fight winning streak that included a shocking knockout win of future champion Stipe Miocic, and looked like he might finally be on his way to becoming a legitimate heavyweight contender. But in his next fight, Mark Hunt obliterated him with a knockout punch that essentially split his jaw in two, and for a while, it looked like that would be the last fight of Struve's career.
While recovering from the Hunt loss, doctors found that Struve had a leaking aortic valve and an enlarged heart, and it was an open question about whether Struve would fight again. It took a year, but even once Struve was cleared, the struggle wasn't over. Struve was slated to face Matt Mitrione at UFC 175, but had a panic attack and fainted backstage while preparing for the bout, raising questions about Struve's ability to hold up mentally, let alone physically, when it came to fighting. And frankly, once Struve eventually made his way back into the Octagon, his performances didn't really assuage those concerns; he looked flat in a quick knockout loss to Alistair Overeem, and even his bounce-back win over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira seemed to have more to do with how faded Nogueira was than any sort of impressive performance by Struve. With time, Struve was eventually able to look like his old self, getting wins over Antonio Silva and Daniel Omielanczuk, but in a way, that only meant getting back to where he started, complete with his old flaws. Struve had his most impressive striking performance to date against fellow giant Alexander Volkov, only to fall victim to his hittability and durability issues via third-round knockout. And his last bout, a decision loss to Andrei Arlovski at UFC 222 this past March, was a damning indictment of Struve's defensive wrestling; Arlovski's never shown a proclivity for wrestling, before or since, yet he was able to take Struve down at will and grind out a victory without much trouble. But for all his flaws, Struve's frame alone still makes him an interesting and unique talent, so he may continue to be a going concern just because the division keeps aging around him. A win against Marcin Tybura would go a long way towards making sure Struve still matters, though.
Poland's Tybura had proven himself to be one of the best heavyweights in Europe by the time the UFC signed him up, which made his debut all the more disappointing. During his tenure with the UFC, Tim Johnson proved to be a solid test for heavyweight newcomers, as he could show if regional heavyweights could compete with the large and durable fighters that make up the bulk of the UFC roster. And on his first night with the promotion, Tybura failed that test; faced with an opponent who was right at the heavyweight weight limit, Tybura's wrestling game was ineffective, and it was Johnson who instead grinded his way to a decision win. Tybura appeared to make an interesting pivot in his next fight, relying on a surprisingly effective range striking game to take out Viktor Pesta, but since then, Tybura has mostly gone back to relying on his wrestling to get the victory. Tybura earned one-sided, if not particularly exciting, victories over Luis Henrique da Silva and Arlovski in his subsequent fights, and after a main-event spot against Fabricio Werdum where Tybura couldn't accomplish much of anything, Tybura was back to the grind against Derrick Lewis, winning a wrestling match for two and a half rounds before suffering a knockout loss. It'll be interesting to see if Tybura can further switch up his game, as he may have a bit more untapped potential as a striker, but even if he doesn't evolve, he can stick around as a borderline top-10 talent in an aging division.
Sometimes a pick seems so simple that I think I might be missing something, but this looks like a pretty easy fight to break down. Struve, as always, has some interesting tools, particularly with the improved striking he showed against Volkov, but his height makes him a defensive liability; simply put, there's more of him to hit, and his high center of gravity is always going to be an issue when it comes to defending takedowns. Given that Tybura's greatest strength is his wrestling, this looks like a readymade win. I don't fault the UFC for booking this matchup, since it's about the most interesting thing you can do with either guy, but the only real hope for drama is that Struve throws up enough submissions from his back to make this interesting. My pick is Tybura via decision.
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