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Lightweights
#9 LW | Mateusz Gamrot (21-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. #6 LW | Beneil Dariush (21-4-1, 15-4-1 UFC)ODDS: Gamrot (-195), Dariush (+165)
It has been a wild path to get Dariush to the most successful stretch of his career. He looked like a future title contender early on in his UFC run, but a particularly rough three-fight stretch from 2017 to 2018 raised some questions about his ceiling. Up until that point, Dariush had effectively developed a pressure striking game to go along with his elite level of grappling skill, but things suddenly started going south whenever he faced dynamic or aggressive competition. Edson Barboza knocked him out with a flying knee, he tired badly in an eventual draw against Evan Dunham and the death knell for his title hopes seemingly came when newcomer Alexander Hernandez blitzed him for a knockout in just 42 seconds. Dariush did eventually course correct by focusing more on his wrestling and grappling, but the general idea of him as a talented fighter with a clear ceiling stayed the same up until a March 2020 bout against Drakkar Klose. That seemed to be where Dariush embraced the madness of fighting, as once the going got tough, he started swinging like an absolute wildman, ending the fight with a barrage that ranked among the best knockouts of the year. Since then, it has been all about aggression. A win over Scott Holtzman continued his streak as a violent knockout artist, and Dariush relentlessly pursued his wrestling in wins over Diego Ferreira and Tony Ferguson. The Ferguson win, which came in May 2021, figured to be the launching pad to get Dariush into title contention, but it has been hard for him to find much momentum since. Injuries have kept Dariush out of action for nearly a year and a half, during which he had to back out of a main event pairing against current title challenger Islam Makhachev; and Ferguson’s own struggles in the time since have taken a lot of shine off that win. However, Dariush could easily get himself back in some important conversations with a win against the surging Gamrot.
Gamrot nearly looked like a high-profile bust upon his 2020 UFC debut. Poland’s “Gamer” was an undefeated two-division champion in KSW, and as a result, he was expected to hit the ground running and quickly become a lightweight title contender. Matched with fellow newcomer Guram Kutateladze for his first trip to the Octagon, Gamrot put in a strong performance, only for his counterpart to match him every step of the way, make the fight relatively even and walk away with the huge upset in a split decision victory. However, Gamrot managed to rebound in impressive fashion, knocking out Holtzman, tapping out Jeremy Stephens in just 65 seconds and then breaking Ferreira in a wrestling-heavy affair. That relentless wrestling is quickly becoming Gamrot’s signature, particularly after his last win in June—a main event victory that saw him surprisingly earn the nod on the scorecards against top prospect Arman Tsarukyan. While Tsarukyan was the more effective striker in that fight, Gamrot eked out the win on the back of some seemingly unbreakable cardio, trying takedown attempt after takedown attempt until finally finding some sustained success in the later rounds. Gamrot may not be the most effective competitor at controlling a fight, but it is legitimately impressive to see how relentless he is in attempting to implement his approach, racking up double-digit takedown attempt totals while also keeping up the pace on the feet. The guess is that Gamrot can successfully weaponize that pace here. He would be a much more formidable favorite in a five-round fight, but Dariush has tired in the rare times he has had to fight three rounds at a sustained pace. Dariush might be the more effective striker in terms of sheer knockout power, but Gamrot appears to be able to hold his own if this turns into a brawl; and the bet is that whenever the Pole decides to pivot to his wrestling, Dariush will be more than willing to engage him on his own terms. This is an excellent pairing. The pick is Gamrot via decision.
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Oliveira vs. Makhachev
Sterling vs. Dillashaw
Yan vs. O’Malley
Gamrot vs. Dariush
Fiorot vs. Chookagian
The Prelims