Preview: UFC 259 Main Card

Lightweights

#14 | Islam Makhachev (18-1, 7-1 UFC) vs. NR | Drew Dober (23-9, 9-5 UFC)

ODDS: Makhachev (-335), Dober (+275)

As Khabib Nurmagomedov continues to have Schrodinger’s lightweight title reign, Makhachev appears to be the next Dagestani up for the UFC. The promotion could certainly do worse for a Nurmagomedov surrogate. Makhachev is a longtime friend and training partner of the lightweight champion. That has made it interesting to watch Makhachev develop over the years. He is nowhere near the elite level of athlete, so he has had to develop a more technically sound approach that, in the end, still relies on a crushing wrestling game. Even though Makhachev has seemingly bubbled under as a potential contender for years, he has yet to receive a huge step up in competition. The UFC seemingly tried to fast track him out of the gate in 2015, but he suffered a flash knockout loss to Adriano Martins in his second UFC outing. Since then, Makhachev has impressed every time out, but he has mostly tread water in the middle of the division. It is surprising to look back on his resume and see that Arman Tsarukyan, potentially the best prospect in the UFC but also a raw talent, is likely his best career win. At any rate, it seems like the UFC is ready to finally see what it has in Makhachev. He was slated for a main event slot in November before an injury, and he gets a high-profile spot here against the surging Dober.

Dober has been a surprising success over the course of his UFC career, given that for a while it was unclear what he provided at the elite level. Dober posted just one win in his first five UFC bouts, and that victory came after Jamie Varner stunned himself on an ill-advised takedown attempt. Dober’s 2016 win over Scott Holtzman was where things finally clicked, as he showed off a sharp striking game that led him to a one-sided decision. Dober’s improvement has come in fits and starts since, but it has been clear sailing since a March 2019 loss to Beneil Dariush. Dober has suddenly developed some knockout power, which he showed off to particularly great effect in a quick stoppage of Nasrat Haqparast in early 2020. For as much of a potentially big win as this is for Makhachev, Dober is also in position to earn a breakthrough victory to suggest that he has finally arrived as a potential contender.

This fight was actually scheduled and scrapped in 2016. At the time, it figured to be an easy Makhachev win on paper, so it says a lot that Dober has made this a much more interesting bout on paper five years later. With that said, Makhachev still should be able to rely on his wrestling for a win. Dober has improved his takedown defense by leaps and bounds from where he once was, but the Dariush fight showed that elite wrestlers and grapplers can still find success in that phase of the game; that is a bar that Makhachev clears. Dober’s best chance at a win is for a quick knockout, and while that was how Makhachev suffered his lone loss, a look back at that appearance shows that he was a much wilder and more reckless striker than his current form. It may take Makhachev a while to get going and this might wind up as a slow grind, but this looks like the Russian’s fight to lose. The pick is Makhachev via decision.

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