Preview: UFC 255 Main Card

Women’s Flyweights

Cynthia Calvillo (9-1-1) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (14-4)

ODDS: Calvillo (-255), Chookagian (+215)

Jessica Andrade seems to be in line for the next title shot, but this represents a strong chance for Calvillo to affirm herself as a true flyweight contender. She had less than a year of professional experience upon her 2017 UFC debut, but the promotion decided to make Calvillo one of its breakout stars of the year and mostly succeeded. First came showcase wins over Amanda Bobby Brundage and Pearl Gonzalez that allowed Calvillo to show off her impressive grappling skills, and that segued into a somewhat surprising win over Joanne Calderwood in a co-main event. The Calderwood bout was essentially a tale of two fights. Calvillo did not offer much on the feet, but she managed to more than make up the difference every time the action went to the mat. That made it a surprise when Calvillo decided to rely on her boxing in her next bout against Carla Esparza, a clear misallocation of resources that seemingly took the Californian by surprise once the decision was rendered against her. Whether it was Calvillo realizing she needs to round out her game by putting in rounds on the feet or just a misidentification of her strengths, her last few bouts have been an adventure. She has not lost since the Esparza fight, but she rarely takes the path of least resistance, which would involve outworking her opponents on the ground. Weight cutting issues at strawweight eventually led Calvillo to move to flyweight in June, and early returns looked good against Jessica Eye. Her boxing appeared sharper thanks to the additional speed advantage and, perhaps more importantly, she was much more willing to mix in her wrestling and grappling. After her October fight against Lauren Murphy was scrapped due to a positive COVID-19 test, Calvillo looks to follow up on that momentum here against Chookagian.

Chookagian could badly use a win, as 2020 has seen her slide out of the flyweight title picture. For most of her career, Chookagian has made her hay as an ersatz Holly Holm clone, using a low-power striking style that served to neutralize and frustrate more than put her stamp on fights. However, she made some obvious improvements in bouts against Calderwood and Jennifer Maia, as Chookagian was obviously more willing to sit down on her strikes and throw with a bit more power. Those improvements did not do her much good against Valentina Shevchenko, as the flyweight queen essentially shrugged off everything Chookagian had to offer on her way to a one-sided title defense. Chookagian rebounded with a wrestling-heavy win over Antonina Shevchenko but soon found herself in another difficult position, as the aforementioned Andrade managed to run over Chookagian without much trouble in October. Thankfully, this fight appears to be at much more physical parity, so while Chookagian may have to wait a while before another title shot becomes viable, she has a chance to get back in the mix with a victory.

This is a hard one to parse. While Calvillo was helped greatly by being a quicker boxer at flyweight against Eye, it is difficult to tell how well that speed advantage will serve her here. Beyond Chookagian being quicker than Eye, she is also a much longer fighter and likely will not allow herself to be peppered the way that Eye was. As with most of Calvillo’s fights, it comes back to her willingness to wrestle; and while the Eye fight was also a step forward in that direction, it is virtually impossible to say whether or not she will reliably leverage her strengths in the future. Beyond that, Calvillo still is not an overwhelming physical force at flyweight. Chookagian is not a top-flight athlete, but this again might be a situation where her size alone is enough to stall the action and cause Calvillo some difficulties. At the end of the day, Calvillo did show enough against Eye that she can probably have some success wrestling and controlling this bout, but it is far from a clean outlook given her inconsistency in terms of approach. The pick is Calvillo via decision, but this is in the running for the toughest call of the card.

Continue Reading » Craig vs. Rua