Women’s Strawweights
Polyana Viana Mota (10-1) vs. J.J. Aldrich (6-2)ANALYSIS: When the bout order for UFC 227 was announced, this seemed like an odd choice for the main card bout. Perhaps the promotion sees something in Mota. The Brazilian is an interesting talent, but it is hard to glean much from her career to date. Her fights in Brazil mostly saw her flail away on the feet before implementing a legitimately sharp submission game that dispatched most opponents as soon as Mota managed to get her hands on them. Her UFC debut, a quick win over Maia Kahaunaele-Stevenson, did not go much differently, so the time has come for the next step up in competition against Aldrich.
Colorado’s Aldrich is a solid prospect, even if her lack of athleticism will always put a ceiling on her potential. She has always had trouble with opponents who can overpower her and get her to the mat; Jamie Moyle and Juliana Lima firmly fit into that criteria, and Tatiana Suarez dominated her on Season 23 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” In her last two appearances, Aldrich has shown how her technical striking game can work, even when she is physically overmatched. She picked apart Chanmi Jeon and did the same to squat power puncher Danielle Taylor. Aldrich should develop into a solid gatekeeper and maybe even a fringe contender, but it does feel like she is mostly in this fight to serve as a benchmark for Mota.
ODDS: Mota (-270), Aldrich (+230)
THE PICK: Mota’s striking game is not particularly good, so I could envision a scenario where Aldrich manages to keep her at bay for 15 minutes while the Brazilian struggles to do much of anything. However, as soon as Mota can get her hands on Aldrich, I suspect the combination of Mota’s submission skill and Aldrich’s lack of athleticism will mean this fight is over. I see that happening sooner rather than later. Mota’s performances will probably be boom or bust going forward, but my pick for this one is the Brazilian by first-round submission.
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