Featherweights
Gilbert Melendez (22-6) vs. Jeremy Stephens (25-14)We know precisely what we are going to get from Stephens in terms of his strengths and limitations. After 10 years and 25 bouts in the UFC, Stephens is still the same aggressive counter-brawler with some surprising wrestling skills, though his move to Alliance MMA in San Diego several years ago has made him a more refined, composed version of that archetype. He bobs and feints, looking to unload massive hooks and uppercuts on the counter. He leg kicks hard and head kicks well. It takes a fine wrestler to get him down and keep him there. However, he can be sucked into brawls, fall prey to fundamentals like jabs and leg kicks and oftentimes get smacked hard with counters when he begins recklessly hurling Mortal Kombat uppercuts with no set-up. We know this man.
What do we make of Melendez, though? While he will always be fondly remembered for his wild brawl with Diego Sanchez, it was a fight that never should have happened. The former Strikeforce lightweight champ was ripped off in his own backyard against Benson Henderson in his April 2013 UFC debut. In his shot at redemption against Anthony Pettis, he faced maybe the best incarnation of “Showtime” ever and was finished for the first time in his career. He probably deserved the nod over Eddie Alvarez in their June 2015 battle. Then he tested positive for exogenous testosterone and lost a year of his career. When he returned 14 months ago, he ran into a horrendous style matchup in Edson Barboza, wound up in a kicking match against one of the most devastating kickers in MMA history and lost all three rounds. After all the wear and tear, is dropping back down to featherweight really the best idea?
What if Melendez’s famously fantastic chin just is not the same and he gets scorched by one of Stephens’ hammers in an exchange? Melendez’s style was always most effective when he established his jab, worked in leg kicks and could time some takedowns against the cage behind those weapons. Though he does not have near the power Stephens wields, Melendez has also been a great hook-and-uppercut guy in tight quarters. Even two years ago, this would have seemed like an open-and-shut case, a simple but obvious tune-up fight for a declining but still elite fighter in Melendez. Now, it has become a literal pick-’em fight.
THE ODDS: Melendez (-115), Stephens (-115)
THE PICK: Melendez did not look shot against Barboza, but he executed a poor strategy against a poor style matchup and paid the price when his leg got destroyed. Melendez’s jab and leg kicks are exactly the sorts of things that have frustrated Stephens’ in the past. Surely Melendez must realize that Stephens’ best chance for victory is to look for a home run in a free-swinging exchange. Unless the featherweight cut is unduly harsh or Melendez has fallen off a cliff, he should be able to rely on his fundamental striking to frustrate Stephens and take a unanimous nod.
Last Fights » The Prelims