Light Heavyweights
Glover Teixeira (25-5) vs. Jared Cannonier (9-1)He certainly looked it in his last fight, a barnburner against the dogged Ion Cutelaba in which Cannonier craftily survived the early onslaught and came on strong in the latter half of the bout, even inviting Cutelaba to touch his chin as he walked him down in the third round. Cannonier was already a knockout artist at heavyweight -- each of his three submissions resulted from punches -- so you know he packs more than enough power to knock light heavyweights down and out. Rather than swinging with reckless abandon, however, Cannonier is liable to set up his combinations with a cracking jab and agile footwork. Cannonier’s obvious power and speed are not crutches as they are for other fighters; instead, they serve as the basis for an intelligent, boxing-based approach.
Of course, none of this changes the fact that Teixeira is the best and most decorated opponent of Cannonier’s short career. Teixeira is a finisher through and through, with 15 knockouts and seven submissions accounting for 88 percent of his wins. Teixeira plays a short game on the feet, closing the gap as often as possible and countering his opponent with tight overhands and ripping left hooks. His punch selection is at times too limited, but he specializes in slipping past his opponent’s long-range tools.
Those seven submissions are no accident, either. Teixeira is an underrated wrestler who shoots about five takedowns every 15 minutes, finishing 2.57 on average. Cannonier was taken down six times by Cutelaba in his last fight, so Teixeira may well look to press his advantage on the ground. The Brazilian is a black belt in jiu-jitsu, and he delights in taking top position. From mount, he is wont to rain down vicious punches. His lunchbox fists are more dangerous than Rickson Gracie’s, but Teixeira is every bit as willing to attack the neck if his opponent gives his back in an attempt to escape the onslaught. He also possesses an excellent guillotine, though Cannonier will be unlikely to rush into the front headlock. He did show some slick defensive grappling against Cutelaba, but odds are he will only grapple if Teixeira makes him.
Now for the X-factor. Teixeira enjoyed a strong 2015, and his quick knockout of Rashad Evans was a solid start to 2016. In his last fight, however, Teixeira was blasted into unconsciousness by Anthony Johnson just 13 seconds into the first round. He is 37, with nearly 15 years of professional competition under his belt. What I am suggesting is that Teixeira may in fact be reaching the end of his long and impressive career, whereas Cannonier really seems to be coming into his own. Only time will tell whether Cannonier is ready for this step up or not, but the stars may be aligning themselves for a new contender at 205 pounds.
THE ODDS: Teixeira (-165), Cannonier (+140)
THE PICK: The best parallel for this bout is probably Teixeira’s scrap with Ovince St. Preux, who possesses similar degrees of power and quickness to Cannonier. Like St. Preux, Cannonier can be taken down. Indeed, wrestling was the key to Teixeira’s victory in that fight. However, Cannonier is much craftier on the ground. Where St. Preux muscled his way back to the feet over and over again, Cannonier will play a safer and much less exhausting guard game if and when Teixeira gets him down. His striking, too, is more technical. Rather than St. Preux’s wild bombs and swinging kicks, Cannonier will be snapping off quick jabs and intelligent combinations. Teixeira is probably not finished as a top fighter just yet, but the result of his last fight is worrisome, and every fight brings him closer to the end of his prolonged prime. Cannonier may end up drowning on the ground, but he will also do his best to keep Teixeira at range and test his chin. Thus, the pick is Cannonier by unanimous decision in a minor upset.
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