Bantamweights
Urijah Faber (33-9) vs. Jimmie Rivera (19-1)Rivera just might be the man for the task, the first in a long line of prospects to finally unseat Faber from his perch atop the gatehouse. Rivera was a consistent winner of decisions for the first six years of his career, but just before his UFC debut, he seemed to develop enough confidence in his power to begin knocking people out. Rivera is not simply a hard puncher, however. He is very technical and composed in the way he approaches the striking game. One of the shortest fighters in his division, he stays low and enters the pocket feet first, protecting his head and goading his opponent to counter, at which point he collapses the distance and throws short punches to the head and body. When he is stuck at long range, Rivera flits from side to side, using kicks to rack up points while he compels his opponent to lunge forward and close the gap for him.
Rivera supplements this striking with the stifling clinch game that allowed him to win so many decisions early in his career. With his stout frame, he is incredibly difficult to take down, as evidence by the fact that no one has succeeded in doing so in the UFC. Faber will almost certainly change that statistic, however. Wrestling and scrambling have been his saving grace in more than a few of his late-career fights. Faber is always capable of snatching up a sudden submission or landing a big punch in a wild exchange -- the benefit of his many years of high-level experience.
The details of Faber’s game have always been a little wishy-washy, though. His footwork seemed to improve under the tutelage of Duane Ludwig, but since Team Alpha Male quit Ludwig’s expertise, Faber has resorted to his old ways. He is fond of stance switching, seeming to focus more on giving his opponent different looks than setting up sequences of attacks. Faber’s toughness, speed and grappling skills have been a fallback but not something the fighter actively works to enhance. His strategies are often ill-advised or seemingly nonexistent. At a certain point, not even a legend of the sport can rely on instinct alone.
THE ODDS: Rivera (-125), Faber (+105)
THE PICK: I struggle to see Faber’s path to victory in this fight, but that has not stopped “The California Kid” from prevailing in the past. Rivera is the superior striker and more thoughtful on the feet. While Faber waits for opportunities, Rivera will be constantly working to create them. He can pressure or pull back and force Faber to lead. He can stop his takedowns at range and compete with Faber in the clinch well enough to reestablish his preferred distance. So long as Rivera avoids tangling with Faber on the ground, this is his fight to lose. Still, Faber is not to be counted out -- not yet. The pick is Rivera by unanimous decision.
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