Light Heavyweights
Mauricio Rua (23-10) vs Corey Anderson (8-1)With that memory in mind, it can be hard to watch when the “Shogun” of old manages to bubble to the surface, only to be snuffed out. When he and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira were rematched at UFC 190, for example, things were going fairly well for Rua, prompting him to pick up the volume and press the action. “Shogun” obeyed that urge, and Nogueira quickly stunned him with a glancing punch and spent the remaining minute of the first round clobbering him against the fence.
Over the past four years, “Shogun” has had to rely more on experience and guile than on speed and power. That is fine -- it is a process that happens to all fighters, and Rua could certainly be worse off given just how much he relied on his athleticism in his youth -- but his skill set lacks the depth of MMA’s wiliest vets. The “Shogun” who fishes for single-leg takedowns and throws one-off shots from long range can and has enjoyed some success, but at his heart Rua is still the superbly quick kickboxer of 2005, and his body will not let him do the things he truly wants to do. Watching Rua nowadays, you get the sense that he still wants to fight but does not enjoy the methods age and wear have compelled him to use.
Anderson, meanwhile, is still largely untested. His best win to date came against an inconsistent Jan Blachowicz, who simply could not match Anderson’s pace. At UFC 196, Anderson managed to best Tom Lawlor, but the punishment he absorbed in the process served to emphasize how much further he has to go before he is ready for the elite. At 26 years old and with barely three years of experience, Anderson is almost Rua’s polar opposite.
Stylistically, Anderson has the edge in activity, and his wrestling -- should he choose to use it -- is an ace up his sleeve. Anderson is quite quick and light-footed for a 205-pounder, but he has yet to develop the kind of defense that would take his game to the next level.
THE ODDS: Anderson (-240), Rua (+200)
THE PICK: Anderson has a tough road ahead of him. Light heavyweight is already a dangerous division -- the punches land harder and the takedowns matter more than any other division apart from heavyweight -- but Anderson is also confronted by a dangerously shallow roster. With only 33 fighters at 205 pounds, every win could be the one that vaults him too high too soon, and every fight could be the one that marks his limit. It would not be surprising to see Rua get the win -- with thudding kicks and a heavy right hand, he is more or less a smaller, craftier Gian Villante, who knocked out Anderson in April 2015. Anderson has improved since then, however, and he should be able to deal with the tricks that “Shogun” has increasingly had to rely on in recent years. The pick is Anderson by unanimous decision.
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