Rory MacDonald has won five of his past six bouts. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
Welterweights
Rory MacDonald (15-2, 6-2 UFC) vs. Demian Maia (18-5, 12-5 UFC)While MacDonald does have some similarities to the ex-welterweight king, including a crisp jab and a rigid adherence to strategy, he thus far lacks the dominant top game St. Pierre relied on so successfully over the years. This was evident in his loss to Robbie Lawler at UFC 167. The Tristar Gym product was able to take down his hard-punching foe four times, but MacDonald was not nearly active enough from top position to leave a lasting impression.
Only late in the third round -- after Lawler had rocked the Canadian -- did MacDonald attack with a sense of urgency from above, and by then, it was too late. As the competition has escalated, MacDonald has become increasingly more conservative. He is accustomed to having the reach advantage, so he is often content to use his jab and kicks to keep his opponents at a safe distance. This style can be effective -- witness his win over Jake Ellenberger at UFC on Fox 8 -- but he lacks the knockout power to threaten someone like Lawler, who was willing to apply pressure and take chances. His wrestling, while good, has only been dominant against the likes of Nate Diaz and Che Mills; Diaz is currently at 155 pounds, and Mills is no longer in the UFC.
MacDonald will be taking a serious risk by attempting to impose his will through takedowns and ground-and-pound against Maia. If he was reluctant to throw strikes in guard against Lawler, doing so against Maia, who has one of the best guards in MMA, is asking for trouble. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is adept at defending the guard pass, threatening with submissions and sweeping or reversing to top position. He will not be able to rock MacDonald on the feet, as Lawler did, but his overall striking has improved to a point where it is not a liability.
Maia’s success will lie in his ability to constantly pressure MacDonald by forcing clinches and using his underrated wrestling to land takedowns. His ability to win positional battles once he is on the inside is unparalleled. Look for a variety of kicks from MacDonald in order to maintain distance.
The Pick: This is an extremely tough fight to call, because Maia’s success at welterweight has come against wrestlers who needed to fight him in close quarters to be successful. MacDonald does not have to do the same, and it is entirely possible that he could win by carefully picking his spots and outpointing the grappling ace. When Maia is relegated to trying to outstrike his foes, the results are not always pretty. MacDonald wins by narrow decision.
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