UFC 130 Preview: The Main Card

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Welterweights
Rick Story vs. Thiago Alves

The Matchup: In a welterweight division virtually barren of marketable challengers for champion Georges St. Pierre, Story and Alves have the chance to change that. Hard-charging Story matches up against talented striker Alves, whose physical gifts and ability to land bombs from any position make him a must-watch attraction.

Story’s task is simple: negate Alves’ solid takedown defense and take away his range and angles. Alves is great at hitting flying knees and striking in varied combinations, as he mixes in punches and kicks with impressive accuracy and seamlessness. Story, an aggressive southpaw with a collegiate wrestling pedigree, is not afraid to trade and has good conditioning and a stout chin, but the uglier this gets, the better his chances are.

The big wild card with Alves is the weight cut and what kind of cardio he will have after reducing down to the 170-pound. limit. The tradeoff for being on the extreme end of this kind of dehydration is that Alves enters the cage around 190 pounds, typically with a huge size and strength advantage.

Story should rip a page from Jon Fitch’s book, using pressure, takedowns and constant exertion in grappling attacks to drain Alves. On the feet, Alves should be clearly superior, but Story is game enough to force trades, opening up clinches and takedowns he can ply to his advantage.

The Pick: This should be an intensely contested match, with no true neutral combat range. Alves has a big edge on the feet, Story in the clinches and on the mat. However, Story’s durability and hard-charging pace should be just enough to put Alves in a defensive stance, and if Story gets nailed, he is not going to fold. Instead, he will come right back at Alves. He will likely have to take some serious shots to close the gap, but he is going to be all over Alves and wear him down en route to a clear-cut decision win.

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