UFC 129 Preview: The Main Card

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Light Heavyweights
Lyoto Machida (No. 4 LHW) vs. Randy Couture

The Matchup: A mercurial striker with more angles than Minnesota Fats, Machida knows exactly what he is dealing with in Couture. The game plan is pretty simple: stick, move, feint and stay the hell away from the cage.

Couture’s half-life as a competitive, elite-level fighter continues to amaze all who watch. The old man’s game has not changed since his early days, back when he was still too old to ostensibly compete. Shoot a couple jabs, clinch, bash the guy against the cage and plant him on the mat. Shower, rinse and repeat. It is pretty hard to outwrestle Couture, and even when he is 90 and in a rest home, he will still be able to hip-toss an orderly for bringing him the wrong meal.

Machida should circle and change directions constantly -- something Mauricio “Shogun” Rua took away from him by being aggressive in their rematch, leg kicking him into a striking stalemate in both matches. This may not necessarily be an easy tactical problem for Couture to solve. Machida’s takedown defense is also sound, and he likes to counter foes closing the gap, particularly with stuff like a sneaking left cross or a jumping knee to the midsection.

For Couture to win this fight -- it would probably rank among some of the better upsets of a career defined by them -- he has to get hold of Machida early and make him work; not necessarily by taking him down but by pushing him against the cage, knocking him in the face with the shoulder, the fist -- whatever -- and making the karateka fret and stress.

Machida seemed a tad tentative in spots against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, perhaps worried that the openings in his style that Rua exploited would be brutalized again. That is not a concern here for him, at least on the feet. He should be too quick and have too many angles for Couture. A lot of countering opportunities will be available.

The Pick: Machida by decision.

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